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August Economic Activity Disappoints Expectations

PERU
  • Economic activity for August registered at -0.6% Y/y, an improvement from the prior -1.3% reading, however, below the surveyed median estimate of -0.2%. Peru’s economy has shrunk in year-on-year terms in six out of the first eight months of the year.
  • The disappointing release and confirmation of the ongoing technical recession will likely keep the probability of the BCRP pausing its easing cycle low. Analysts note that domestic demand remains weak, in line with falling investment and more stable, but slow consumption.
  • As a reminder in the latest BCRP statement, the central bank commented that “the leading and expectations indicators for economic activity in September deteriorated relative to the previous month and most of them remain in pessimistic territory.”
  • Additional data released yesterday showed September unemployment printed in line with expectations at 6.7%.
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