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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA DATA
The modest upside surprise on manufacturing (49.7, 49.2 forecast and 49.3 prior) was driven by a firmer output sub-index, which rose to 51.9 from 50.2, along with new orders, 50.2 from 49.5.
- Other indicators were more mixed. Inventories ticked higher, leaving the new orders to inventory ratio slightly lower at 1.06, versus 1.07 in July. Notably the employment sub index edged down to 48.0 from 48.1 in July.
- New export orders ticked slightly higher, but at 46.7, remains comfortably in contractionary territory. This still suggests a challenging export growth backdrop, albeit with some scope for y/y improvement, see the chart below.
- By size of enterprise, there was improvement across the board, although small enterprises remain weaker at 47.7, versus 50.8 for large.
Fig 1: China Export Growth Versus Manufacturing PMI New Export Orders Index
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
- In terms of prices, input prices rose to 56.5, from 52.4 in July. Output prices also rose to 52.0, from 48.6. The second chart below plots the input price measure for both the manufacturing and services PMI, with both measures trending higher in recent months. This suggests a less adverse deflationary backdrop all else equal for China.
- On the services PMI side, the headline move lower (51.0 from 51.5 prior and 51.2 forecast) was driven by declining new orders to 47.5 from 48.1. The employment sub-index was relatively steady at 46.8, prior was 46.6. As per above price pressures firmer on the input side. Note as well output selling prices rose to 50.0 from 49.7.
Fig 2: China PMI Input Price Measures
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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