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August retail sales data due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • Retail sales for August which are due for release on Friday will give us our best indication yet of the state of the consumer recovery and will be closely watched by markets. As the reopening effect fades, the increase in sales is likely to slow further in Aug and markets expect sales to edge up by 0.8% m/m in Aug after they rose 3.6% in Jul. Retail sales plunged in Apr (-18.2%) before they already recovered sharply in May (+12.2%) and saw another double-digit growth rate in Jun (+13.9%).
  • Sales in predominantly food stores fell 3.1% in Jul after two consecutive months of growth, while sales in non-food stores rose again sharply by 10.0%. Online sales remained elevated in Jul at 52.9% y/y, while m/m sales eased 7% following seven months successive growth.
  • Consumer sentiment remained unchanged since Jul and the Gfk survey noted that households are particularly concerned about unemployment due to the end of the furlough scheme in Oct. The major purchases index edged up but remained in deeply negative, which bodes ill with future spending.
  • The BRC reported another increase in total as well as like for like sales in August compared to a year ago. However, the report noted that retailers in city and town centres are still struggling due to low footfall as office workers have not yet returned.
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