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AUSSIE BONDS: Jobs Miss Richening Quickly Reversed

AUSSIE BONDS
RegionGlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM flat & XM -3.5) are holding a slight bear-steepening despite today’s jobs gain miss. An initial 2-3bp pop was quickly unwound. 

  • Employment rose 15,914 m/m (estimate +25k) in October versus a revised +61.3k in September. The jobless rate was unchanged at 4.1% (estimate 4.1%).
  • (ABS) “While employment grew in October, the 0.1 per cent increase was the slowest growth in recent months. This was lower than each of the previous six months when employment rose by an average of 0.3 per cent per month.”
  • MI consumer inflation expectations are heading in the right direction with the November reading moderating 0.2pp to 3.8%, the lowest since the pandemic-impacted February 2021.
  • Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s twist-steepening.
  • Cash ACGBs are flat to 3bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +23bps.
  • Swap rates are -1bp lower to 1bp higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip is slightly richer, with pricing flat to +1.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-3bps softer across 2025 meeting. A 25bps rate cut is not fully priced until August. 
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ACGBs (YM flat & XM -3.5) are holding a slight bear-steepening despite today’s jobs gain miss. An initial 2-3bp pop was quickly unwound. 

  • Employment rose 15,914 m/m (estimate +25k) in October versus a revised +61.3k in September. The jobless rate was unchanged at 4.1% (estimate 4.1%).
  • (ABS) “While employment grew in October, the 0.1 per cent increase was the slowest growth in recent months. This was lower than each of the previous six months when employment rose by an average of 0.3 per cent per month.”
  • MI consumer inflation expectations are heading in the right direction with the November reading moderating 0.2pp to 3.8%, the lowest since the pandemic-impacted February 2021.
  • Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s twist-steepening.
  • Cash ACGBs are flat to 3bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +23bps.
  • Swap rates are -1bp lower to 1bp higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
  • The bills strip is slightly richer, with pricing flat to +1.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-3bps softer across 2025 meeting. A 25bps rate cut is not fully priced until August.