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AUSSIE BONDS: Subdued Start To A Busy Week, RBA Tomorrow, CPI On Wednesday

AUSSIE BONDS
RegionGlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -5.0) are weaker after dealing in narrow ranges in today’s Sydney session. Without cash US tsy dealing in today's Asia-Pac session due to a holiday in Japan, the local market has traded without conviction. 

  • TYZ4 currently deals at 114-20+, -0-06+ from Friday’s closing levels.  
  • The RBA's Policy Decision is due tomorrow, with Bloomberg consensus unanimous in expecting a no-change outcome.
  • Following the decision and statement at 1430 AEST, RBA Governor Bullock will hold a press conference at 1530 AEST. She last spoke on September 5 and since then survey data have been soft but labour market and lending data strong. So, we don’t expect that the Board has changed its view that it is too soon to discuss rate cuts.
  • August CPI is released on Wednesday with the headline forecast to moderate to 2.7% from 3.5% driven by federal government electricity subsidies. The trimmed mean will be the focus (3.8% in July).
  • Cash ACGBs are 4bps cheaper.
  • Swap rates are 4bps higher.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -4 to -6.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-5bps firmer across 2025 meetings. A cumulative 15bps of easing is priced by year-end.
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ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -5.0) are weaker after dealing in narrow ranges in today’s Sydney session. Without cash US tsy dealing in today's Asia-Pac session due to a holiday in Japan, the local market has traded without conviction. 

  • TYZ4 currently deals at 114-20+, -0-06+ from Friday’s closing levels.  
  • The RBA's Policy Decision is due tomorrow, with Bloomberg consensus unanimous in expecting a no-change outcome.
  • Following the decision and statement at 1430 AEST, RBA Governor Bullock will hold a press conference at 1530 AEST. She last spoke on September 5 and since then survey data have been soft but labour market and lending data strong. So, we don’t expect that the Board has changed its view that it is too soon to discuss rate cuts.
  • August CPI is released on Wednesday with the headline forecast to moderate to 2.7% from 3.5% driven by federal government electricity subsidies. The trimmed mean will be the focus (3.8% in July).
  • Cash ACGBs are 4bps cheaper.
  • Swap rates are 4bps higher.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -4 to -6.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-5bps firmer across 2025 meetings. A cumulative 15bps of easing is priced by year-end.