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Watching The 50-Day EMA


Bearish Focus


Updated Barclays/Bbg Extension Estimates for US


Late Session Selling

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  • The greenback fell against AUD on Thursday, even as it lifted against other including EUR and CNH. AUD/USD rose to highs of 0.7397 before pulling back, the pair finished the day 0.27% higher at 0.7379 and last trades at 0.7383. The pair has now gained for three consecutive sessions, after a decline of 3.05% through June, the rate is down around 1.75% in July so far.
  • From a technical perspective AUD/USD outlook remains bearish. This follows the recent sell-off that prompted new multi-month lows and a breach of the channel base at 0.7360. The channel is drawn from the Feb 25 high and the move lower marks an important short-term technical break. Scope is for weakness towards 0.7235 next, the 1.236 projection of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 0.7429, Jul 19 high.
  • Familiar catalysts will apply today, the local COVID-19 situation will likely be a headwind, the number of cases in Sydney hit the highest since the start of the latest wave and are expected to continue to rise. There were 124 cases on Thursday. NSW Premier Berejiklian said yesterday that officials were working to see what restrictions could be eased from the end of July but noted hurdles if infection rates remain elevated.
  • The economic docket is headlined today by the July preliminary Markit Australia PMI survey. The survey's are likely to reflect the effects of lockdowns during the period.