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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUD
Risk aversion inspired by Fed's looming policy tightening and the geopolitical tension over Russian military build-up near Ukraine sapped strength from AUD/USD Monday. The rate showed at its worst levels since Dec 20 but a late-doors recovery pushed it back above the neckline of a crystallising double top pattern. The rebound was driven by a bounce in U.S. equity benchmarks, with participants rushing to buy the dips.
- Implied AUD/USD overnight volatility remains elevated, as the imminent release of quarterly CPI data out of Australia overlaps with familiar global uncertainties. The inflation data will hit the wires alongside monthly NAB Business Confidence.
- The Aussie has shown no reaction to an uptick in ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence, which rose to 100.1 from 97.9.
- Looking further afield, terms of trade are due Thursday, with PPI coming up Friday.
- NSW Premier Perrottet extended pandemic restrictions for another month, i.e. until at least the end of February.
- AUD/USD sits at $0.7150, up 5 pips on the day. Should the rate slide through Dec 20 low of $0.7082, bears could take aim at the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 upleg at $0.7069. Bulls look to a move through Jan 20 high of $0.7277 before targeting Jan 13 high of $0.7314.
Fig. 1: AUD/USD Overnight Implied Volatility (%)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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