Australian Election: Labor Support Edges Down, But Still Ahead

The latest opinion poll ahead of the Australian federal election (this Sat 21 May), suggests a closer contest but the Labor Party still enjoys a comfortable lead.

• The Roy Morgan poll shows the Labor Party leading the incumbent Liberal/National coalition by 53% to 47% on a two-party preferred basis.
• The poll had a sample size of 1366 and was conducted over May 9-15th.
• Interestingly, the lead by Labor has narrowed from the previous week, with the party down by 1.5ppts, while coalition support rose by the same amount.
• There will still be some uncertainty heading into Saturday, particularly given the last election experience in 2019, when opinion polls generally failed to predict the coalition victory.
• Still, this latest results suggests the Labor Party is on track to win 80 seats, which would give it a small majority.
• The coalition will be hoping for a late surge in support from their recently announced policy around housing, whereby first home-buyers can tap into their retirement savings to help fund the deposit for a house.