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AUSTRALIA DATA: Public Sector Wage Inflation Exceeds Private

AUSTRALIA DATA
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Q3 WPI printed below expectations at 0.8% q/q and 3.5% y/y after 0.8% q/q and 4.1% y/y, lowest since Q4 2022. The ABS noted that the smaller minimum wage increase on July 1 of 3.75% after 5.75% last year and 4.6-5.2% in 2022 has helped to drive wage inflation lower. The Q3 WPI outcome is could see Q4 undershoot RBA expectations at 3.4% y/y. 

  • Q3 WPI was in line with trimmed mean inflation but above headline. 
  • Both the private and public sectors saw 0.8% quarterly wage rises with annual growth easing to 3.5% and 3.7% from 4.1% and 3.9% respectively. This is the first time that public wage growth is above private since Q4 2020. Q3 2023 saw private wages rise 1.4% q/q and public 1.0%.
  • Healthcare (+1.7%), retail (+2.1%) and admin services (+2.1%) saw the largest quarterly increases.
  • Wage pressures appear to be easing as inflation moderates and the economy slows. The ABS observes that 31% of wage increases were above 4% annualised in Q3 down from 46% in Q2, the peak. Also the average increase is moderating with the total down to 3.7% in Q3 2024 from 5.4% in Q3 2023 and the private sector to 3.9% from 5.8%, but this was driven by the lower minimum wage increase.
  • With productivity growth remaining soft at 0.4% y/y in Q2 and the RBA revising down its expectations for 2024 and 2025, wage growth needs to moderate a bit further for it to be consistent with the inflation target.

Australia wages y/y%

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Q3 WPI printed below expectations at 0.8% q/q and 3.5% y/y after 0.8% q/q and 4.1% y/y, lowest since Q4 2022. The ABS noted that the smaller minimum wage increase on July 1 of 3.75% after 5.75% last year and 4.6-5.2% in 2022 has helped to drive wage inflation lower. The Q3 WPI outcome is could see Q4 undershoot RBA expectations at 3.4% y/y. 

  • Q3 WPI was in line with trimmed mean inflation but above headline. 
  • Both the private and public sectors saw 0.8% quarterly wage rises with annual growth easing to 3.5% and 3.7% from 4.1% and 3.9% respectively. This is the first time that public wage growth is above private since Q4 2020. Q3 2023 saw private wages rise 1.4% q/q and public 1.0%.
  • Healthcare (+1.7%), retail (+2.1%) and admin services (+2.1%) saw the largest quarterly increases.
  • Wage pressures appear to be easing as inflation moderates and the economy slows. The ABS observes that 31% of wage increases were above 4% annualised in Q3 down from 46% in Q2, the peak. Also the average increase is moderating with the total down to 3.7% in Q3 2024 from 5.4% in Q3 2023 and the private sector to 3.9% from 5.8%, but this was driven by the lower minimum wage increase.
  • With productivity growth remaining soft at 0.4% y/y in Q2 and the RBA revising down its expectations for 2024 and 2025, wage growth needs to moderate a bit further for it to be consistent with the inflation target.

Australia wages y/y%

Keep reading...Show less