- US Tsys futures are off session highs, and now trade slightly lower for the session. JGB futures are sharply weaker but off session cheaps, -37 compared to settlement levels. We had stronger PPI data in Japan but sentiment wasn't impacted.
- Aussie bonds are also lower, shrugging off a downside wages print relative to market expectations.
- The USD has been supported on dips. Sentiment stabilized though with a stronger CNY fixing.
- Later October US CPI prints and is expected to show a pickup in headline to 2.6% y/y while core should stay at 3.3%. There are also October real earnings and budget data, as well as France’s Q3 unemployment rate. The Fed’s Kashkari, Williams, Logan, Musalem, Schmid and BoE’s Mann appear.
MARKETS
- Tsys futures are off session highs, and now trade slightly lower for the session. TU is -00⅝ at 102-18+ vs the overnight lows of 102-17⅝, TY is trading -01 at 109-12+ vs overnight lows of 109-10.
- 10yr Dec'24 futures remain in a bearish trend with last week’s move lower reinforces the downtrend and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A resumption of the bear leg would open 109-05 next, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull cycle (cont). The 109-00 handle remains exposed too. Initial firm resistance is seen at 111-29+, the 20-day EMA.
- Overnight the selloff led to a sharp tightening of SOFR 10yr swap spreads, which dropped around 3bps, marking the largest one-day tightening since March 2023. The spreads fell to -48bps after peaking at -46.8bps earlier in the session, the move follows a period of spread widening after the US election, reflecting investor reactions to potential deregulation.
- The cash tsys yields are slightly higher again today following overnight bear-steepening move where yields closed 8-13bps higher. The 2yr is 4.342%, while the 10yr is 4.429% only 5bps off the highs made on Nov 6. The 2s10s is -0.420 at 7.899, while ovenright the 2s7s30s fly cheapened 8bps.
- Projected rate cuts into early 2025 compared to early Tuesday levels (*): Dec'24 cumulative -15.5bp (-17.2bp), Jan'25 -23.0bp (-25.2bp), Mar'25 -36.0bp (-38.2bp), May'25 -41.8bp (-44.3bp).
- Later today we have MBZ Mortgage Applications, followed by CPI.
GLOBAL MACRO: Major Blocks Worried Re Tariffs As US Deficit Widens
The US visible trade deficit widened almost $80bn in September from December 2023 with bilateral deficits with NAFTA, the EU, China and Pacific Rim ex China all widening. With Trump’s US election win, some iteration of his promises to increase tariffs is likely, but there are likely to be exemptions.
US bilateral trade positions US$bn 12mth sum
- His pro-growth policies have driven the US dollar higher with the USD BBDXY up 2.0% since November 5 to its highest level in a year, making a narrowing of the deficit more difficult if the move is sustained.
- While Trump promised a uniform tariff of 10-20% on all imports, China and Mexico were the focus. China could face 60% uniform tariffs and Mexico 25% with possibly 500% for cars. Chinese auto firms have been producing in Mexico to avoid protectionism.
- The US’ deficit with China since December 2020, end of Trump’s last term, has actually narrowed around $21bn but widened again this year. Whereas with Mexico it is $54bn and $13bn wider respectively.
- Mexico stands to lose significantly with 83% of 2023 goods imports going to the US worth around 6.8% of its GDP, but Trump has said it can avoid tariffs by controlling criminal and drug transits across the border.
- China is far less dependent with 15% of exports going to the US worth 2.8% of GDP but given slow growth there, it will want to avoid facing increased protectionism and is likely to retaliate with its own measures.
- The US deficit with the EU is almost $20bn wider YTD and over $45bn since December 2020. European officials are aware that the US will want to turn this trend around and European Commission President von der Leyen suggested to Trump that Europe could increase its imports of US LNG.
- The deficit with the Pacific Rim ex China widened over $20bn in 2024 to date. In Asia, Korea and Japan are most exposed with around 20% of exports going to the US.
2023 Exports to US %
GLOBAL MACRO: Global Credit Spreads At Multi-Year Lows
- Credit spreads continue to grind tighter with both US IG & HY OAS now trading at multi-year lows. The BBG US Aggregate spread have tightened 10bps in November, with the Index now at its tightest level on record
- Similar moves have occurred in the Asia credit space, with Asia USD IG now trading at +69bps to record lows, while Asia HY is now back at 2018 lows at +422bps
- The moves come as US tsys yields rise 15-40bps over the past month, a lack of corporate issuance has contributed to the tightening.
Chart. US Aggregate & HY Option Adjusted Spreads
JGBS: Cheaper Ahead Of US CPI Data, Q3 GDP On Friday
JGB futures are sharply weaker but off session cheaps, -37 compared to settlement levels.
- Japan's October PPI was stronger than expected, up 0.2%m/m, versus a flat forecast. The prior month was also revised higher to a 0.3% gain (initially reported as flat). In y/y terms, we rose 3.4%, against a 2.9% forecast and 3.1% prior (initially reported as a 2.8% gain).
- Cash US tsys are slightly cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s heavy session. Key October US CPI inflation data will be released later today. From our October CPI preview, sequential core CPI is seen coming in basically the same as prior (roughly 0.30%), with headline edging up (0.20% vs 0.18% September).
- Cash JGBs are 2-3bps cheaper across benchmarks. The benchmark 30-year yield is 0.7bp higher at 2.278% after today’s supply.
- The 30-year auction saw mixed results, with the low price beating dealer expectations and the cover ratio edging up to 3.4353x from 3.3438x. However, the auction tail lengthened. A higher outright yield likely contributed to increased demand in today’s auction.
- Swap rate swings are bounded by +/- 1bp. Swap spreads are tighter.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see weekly International Investment flow data, ahead of Q3 GDP on Friday.
JAPAN DATA: PPI Y/Y Back Above 3%, Should Support Headline CPI
Japan's October PPI was stronger than expected, up 0.2%m/m, versus a flat forecast. The prior month was also revised higher to a 0.3% gain (initially reported as flat). In y/y terms, we rose 3.4%, against a 2.9% forecast and 3.1% prior (initially reported as a 2.8% gain).
- The chart below plots the PPI y/y against headline CPI y/y for Japan. Whilst there is a clear levels difference between the two series, the directional correlation remains reasonable. Today's PPI result, all else equal, should be supportive of the CPI backdrop.
- Looking at the detail, agriculture +26%y/y, non-ferrous metals +14.6%y/y, along with oil and coal +4.5% and textiles +4.6%y/y were the strongest contributors to the PPI y/y rise. Only three sub categories saw negative y/y prints.
Fig 1: Japan PPI (White Line) & CPI Y/Y
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
JAPAN: Import Prices May Soon Return To Positive Y/Y Territory
Earlier data showed Japan import prices down -2.2% y/y in Oct, little changed from September's -2.5% pace. Still, in m/m terms import prices were up 3.0% m/m, the first gain since July of this year.
- Y/Y momentum in import prices may soon return to positive territory. The chart below overlays import prices against y/y changes in USD/JPY.
- If USD/JPY holds at current levels into year end (near 155.00) it will have the y/y change at nearly +10% by end December, which is the extended line shown in the chart below.
- Today's data showed all import prices up in m/m terms by sub-category.
- The main BoJ focus point is on domestic service price pressures. As our policy team noted earlier today "BOJ officials are encouraged by the October price revisions as firms are transferring higher labour costs to retail prices. They will now focus on the October nationwide CPI due out on Nov. 22 to examine services prices."
- Still, higher import costs via a weaker yen, could still impact BoJ thinking over coming months.
Fig 1: Japan Import Prices & USD/JPY Y/Y Changes
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
AUSSIE BONDS: Very Heavy Ahead Of US CPI Today & Jobs Tomorrow
ACGBs (YM -10.0 & XM -11.00) are sharply cheaper and at the Sydney session’s worst levels ahead of key US CPI data later today and October jobs tomorrow. 3-year yield climbs 10bps to 4.21%, the highest since 2023.
- Q3 WPI printed below expectations at 0.8% q/q and 3.5% y/y after 0.8% q/q and 4.1% y/y, lowest since Q4 2022.
- Cash US tsys are slightly cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s heavy session.
- Cash ACGBs are 10-11bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +24bps.
- Swap rates are 9bps higher.
- The bills strip has sharply bear-steepened, with pricing -2 to -12.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 2-9bps firmer across the 2025 meeting. A 25bps rate cut is not fully priced until September.
- Analysts are again forecasting a 25k rise in employment tomorrow but with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. The labour market remains tight. The RBA noted in November that “some indicators have recently stabilised”, including hours worked, while the youth unemployment rate and underemployment have “declined”.
- QTC has priced an A$1.75bn increase of the 4.50% Aug-35 A$ bond. The transaction has a re-offer yield of 5.47%.
AUSTRALIA DATA: Public Sector Wage Inflation Exceeds Private
Q3 WPI printed below expectations at 0.8% q/q and 3.5% y/y after 0.8% q/q and 4.1% y/y, lowest since Q4 2022. The ABS noted that the smaller minimum wage increase on July 1 of 3.75% after 5.75% last year and 4.6-5.2% in 2022 has helped to drive wage inflation lower. The Q3 WPI outcome is could see Q4 undershoot RBA expectations at 3.4% y/y.
- Q3 WPI was in line with trimmed mean inflation but above headline.
- Both the private and public sectors saw 0.8% quarterly wage rises with annual growth easing to 3.5% and 3.7% from 4.1% and 3.9% respectively. This is the first time that public wage growth is above private since Q4 2020. Q3 2023 saw private wages rise 1.4% q/q and public 1.0%.
- Healthcare (+1.7%), retail (+2.1%) and admin services (+2.1%) saw the largest quarterly increases.
- Wage pressures appear to be easing as inflation moderates and the economy slows. The ABS observes that 31% of wage increases were above 4% annualised in Q3 down from 46% in Q2, the peak. Also the average increase is moderating with the total down to 3.7% in Q3 2024 from 5.4% in Q3 2023 and the private sector to 3.9% from 5.8%, but this was driven by the lower minimum wage increase.
- With productivity growth remaining soft at 0.4% y/y in Q2 and the RBA revising down its expectations for 2024 and 2025, wage growth needs to moderate a bit further for it to be consistent with the inflation target.
Australia wages y/y%
AUSTRALIA: Unemployment Forecast To Be Stable, Monitor The Details
October jobs data print on Thursday and analysts are again forecasting a 25k rise in employment but with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.1%. The labour market has surprised to the upside this year with more jobs created in the year to September than in 2023. It remains tight. The RBA noted in November that “some indicators have recently stabilised”, including hours worked, while the youth unemployment rate and underemployment have “declined”. Thus the details should be monitored too.
- Employment forecasts recorded by Bloomberg are in a reasonably narrow range of +10k to +50k. The Q3 average was 51.9k with 64.1k in September. There may be an effect from people taking time off between jobs during school holidays with most schools closed in the first week of October and NSW/SA/Tasmania/ACT off for the first two weeks.
- In terms of the four large domestic banks CBA and Westpac are forecasting new jobs below consensus at 20k, while ANZ and NAB are above at +35k and +30k respectively.
- The September unemployment rate printed at 4.067%, close to a rounded 4.0%. Analysts are between 4.0% and 4.3% for October with ANZ and NAB at consensus’ 4.1% but CBA and Westpac forecasting a 0.1pp rise to 4.2%.
- The participation rate is expected to be unchanged at 67.2%, a record high.
AUSTRALIA: Is The Vacancy Market Stabilising?
The deterioration in the vacancy market may be stabilising with 3-month momentum in SEEK job ads back to around neutral in September/October. The applicant-per-job ratio may have peaked in August but its growth has been moderating since mid-2023. October ABS jobs data print on Thursday and will be monitored for signs of steadiness after the RBA noted in November that “some indicators have recently stabilised”.
- SEEK jobs ads fell 3.1% m/m in October following three consecutive monthly rises, to be down 10.7% y/y after 11.2% y/y. November will show if this weakness is a new trend. The index level is still 5.9% above December 2019.
- SA and WA saw an increase in job ads as did advertising & media, engineering, design and financial services. Retail & consumer products fell 8.8% m/m though consistent with weak household spending.
- Job ads-per-applicant in September fell 0.9% m/m, the first monthly drop since July 2022, to be up 43.3% y/y after 48.8% y/y. But labour supply remains plentiful.
Australia SEEK jobs ads %
Source: MNI - Market News/SEEK
NZGBS: Heavy Session But Outperforms $-Bloc, Food Prices Tomorrow
NZGBs closed not far off session cheaps, with benchmark yields 7-9bps higher. The NZGB 10-year did however manage to outperform its $-bloc counterparts, with the NZ-US and NZ-AU yield differentials 3-4bps tighter at +23bps and +1bp respectively.
- Cash US tsys are little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s heavy session. Key October US CPI inflation data will be released later today.
- NZ new home loans rose 5.7% to NZ$6.55 billion in September from NZ$6.19 billion in August. In terms of debt to ratio (DTI), expressed as total yearly household income minus total debt, loans with more than five times the debt to ratio made up 27.8% of the housing loans made during the month. (per BBG)
- Swap rates closed 4-5bps higher.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see REINZ House Sales and Food Prices.
- Swap rates are 4-5bps higher, with the belly outperforming.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 4-8bps firmer for 2025 meetings. A cumulative 86bps of easing is priced by February, with 52bps by year-end.
- Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$200mn of the 3.0% Apr-29 bond, NZ$250mn of the 4.5% May-35 bond and NZ$50mn of the 2.75% Apr-37 bond.
FOREX: Steady Trends Ahead Of US CPI, Firmer Yuan Helps A$
G10 FX moves have been very muted so far in Wednesday trade. The BBDXY index sits little changed in latest dealings, near 1280, modestly off cycle highs from Tuesday US trade. We have the US CPI print later.
- The early bias was for USD gains, albeit remaining within recent ranges. Sentiment started to stabilize after the stronger than expected CNY fixing, which aided the yuan.
- AUD/USD got to 0.6517, close to recent lows, but sits back at 0.6535/40 in latest dealings, little changed for the session. Earlier data showed Q3 wages print below expectations at 0.8% q/q and 3.5% y/y after 0.8% q/q and 4.1% y/y, lowest since Q4 2022. Tomorrow we have jobs data in Australia.
- NZD/USD is up a touch, last near 0.5930.
- In Japan, PPI data rose more than forecast and is back above 3% y/y, which should help underpin headline CPI momentum. Import prices were still down in y/y terms, but if USD/JPY holds around current levels, we could see that trend reverse by year end/early 2025.
- USD/JPY has drifted a little higher through the course of the session, but couldn't test through 155.00 (highs 154.94). The above data did little to boost yen sentiment.
- In the cross asset space, US equity futures sit modestly lower. The regional equity backdrop has mostly been weaker. US TSY yields are closed to unchanged.
- Later October US CPI prints and is expected to show a pickup in headline to 2.6% y/y while core should stay at 3.3%. There are also October real earnings and budget data, as well as France’s Q3 unemployment rate. The Fed’s Kashkari, Williams, Logan, Musalem, Schmid and BoE’s Mann appear.
ASIA STOCKS: Hong Kong Equities Continues Sell-Off, HSI below 20,000
China mainland equities are slightly higher today with the CSI 300 +0.10%, however the gains have been largely attributed to Telecom stocks, with most other sectors in the red. The HSI has dropped for a fourth consecutive day, and trading below 20,000 for the first time since late September, and losing 7.60% from Nov 8 highs. The decline was driven by concerns over Donald Trump’s re-election, which is expected to bring higher tariffs, trade protectionism, and increased inflation.
- China is expected to cut taxes on home purchases by the end of this year to support the real estate market, according to Securities Times. The government plans to remove the tax distinction between ordinary and luxury homes and implement policies to reduce home purchase and rental-related taxes. Additionally, authorities are exploring how to use funds from special bond issuance to acquire idle land. These measures aim to boost homebuyer demand, develop the rental market, and ease financial pressure on real estate companies. Some tax cuts will be introduced this year, with the rest expected by early 2025.
- China property stocks are struggling today with the Mainland Property Index -2.20%, HS Property Index -1.40%, while the BBG China Property Gauge -2.50%
- In October, China's household deposits dropped by 570b yuan ($78.8 billion) as savers shifted funds from bank accounts into the stock market and mutual funds, however, household deposits had still risen by 11.28t yuan in the first ten months of the year, compared to 11.85t yuan during the first nine months, as per BBG. The move comes after strong equity market returns following an array of stimulus measure from the government, while simultaneously lowering deposit savings rates to below 2%
ASIA STOCKS: Asian Equities Struggle, Tech Stocks Mixed, Samsung At 4yr Lows
Asian equities declined for a fourth consecutive day, with widespread losses driven by concerns over President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs and upcoming US inflation data. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.1%, with industrial and consumer discretionary sectors leading the drop. South Korea’s Kospi saw the sharpest decline, down 2%, with Samsung hitting a four-year low. Japan, Australia, and Hong Kong also experienced notable losses.
- Broad losses in Asian equities today, China's CSI 300 is slightly higher, however this is largely due to the Telecom sector, all other sectors in the red, the HSI is 0.65% lower.
- Asia semiconductor stocks are mixed today, with Tokyo Electron up 2.90% following strong 2Q results most other large cap names are flat to slightly higher apart from Samsung. The BBG Asia Semiconductor gauge is 1.05% lower.
- Japanese stocks ehave continue to sell-off throughout the session as the rally following the US election begins to lose momentum. Despite some support from positive earnings reports, after Tokyo Electron reporting better-than-expected 2Q results. The TOPIX is 1.05% lower, while the Nikkei is -1.4% lower
- South Korean equities are the worst performing in the region with the KOSPI -2.10%, while the KOSDAQ is -2.35%. Foreign investors continue to sell with a total $350m of net outflow today, majority of that from Samsung. Taiwan's TAIEX is little changed today, with TSMC unchanged and Hon Hai +0.90%
- Australian financials and mining stocks are weighing down the ASX200 (-0.85%). New Zealand equities closed 0.60% lower, with Healthcare stocks contributing most to the losses.
ASIA STOCKS: Foreign Investors Sell Asia Tech Stocks
Taiwan saw the largest outflows since early September on Tuesday, the outflows look largely linked to TSMC with investors likely taking profits following the strong performance post earnings a few weeks ago.
- South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$222m yesterday, with a 5-day total of -$577m. YTD flows remain positive at +$6.607b. The 5-day average is -$115m, worse than the 20-day average of -$170m and the 100-day average of -$94m.
- Taiwan: Posted outflows of -$1.411b yesterday, totaling -$1.179b over the past 5 days. YTD flows remain negative at -$12.772b. The 5-day average is -$236m, worse than the 20-day average of -$12m and the 100-day average of -$168m.
- India: Experienced outflows of -$43m yesterday with a 5-day outflow of -$1.780b. YTD flows are negative at -$2.234b. The 5-day average is -$356m, worse than the 20-day average of -$328m but better than the 100-day average of +$12m.
- Indonesia: Posted outflows of -$70m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$485m. YTD flows remain positive at +$2.069b. The 5-day average is -$97m, worse than the 20-day average of -$39m but better than the 100-day average of +$25m.
- Thailand: Recorded inflows of +$15m yesterday, with a total outflow of -$157m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$3.611b. The 5-day average is -$31m, worse than the 20-day average of -$26m and the 100-day average of -$8m.
- Malaysia: Experienced outflows of -$4m yesterday, contributing to a 5-day outflow of -$115m. YTD flows are positive at +$260m. The 5-day average is -$23m, worse than the 20-day average of -$14m but better than the 100-day average of +$3m.
- Philippines: Saw outflows of -$19m yesterday, with net outflows of -$150m over the past 5 days. YTD flows remain negative at -$120m. The 5-day average is -$30m, worse than the 20-day average of -$9m but better than the 100-day average of +$4m.
Table 1: EM Asia Equity Flows
GOLD: Rebound After Another Heavy Session On Tuesday
Spot gold fell by another 0.8% to $2,598.39/oz on Tuesday, as higher US yields and pressure on major equity indices prompted further gains for the US dollar.
- However, bullion has recovered some of the lost ground in today’s Asia-Pac session, up 0.5%.
- It was a heavy session for US Treasuries on Tuesday in the lead-up to today’s key October CPI inflation data. It will be followed by PPI on Thursday.
- The US 10-year cheapened 12bps to 4.43% and the 2-year yield rose 9bps to 4.34%. Concerns over potentially inflationary aspects of Trump's fiscal policies likely exacerbated selling.
- Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari suggested on Tuesday that it could take significant upside inflation surprises in the next two months to cause the Fed to deviate from cutting rates a third consecutive time at the next meeting.
- Lower rates are typically positive for gold, which doesn’t pay interest.
- According to MNI’s technicals team, yesterday’s move brought the yellow metal below the $2,600 level earlier for the first time since September 20, down more than 5% since last week’s US election.
- The latest pullback appears to be corrective, although recent weakness has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a deeper retracement towards $2,547.0, the Sep 18 low.
SOUTH KOREA: Unemployment Rises
- The unemployment rate for October rose to 2.7% from 2.6% in September.
- The 5y average of +3.2% captures the COVID period, where unemployment rose to +4.8%.
- The post COVID period from early 2022 sees the average decline to +2.8%.
- The manufacturing sector adjustment continues to be a major contributor to the unemployment outcome.
- Having cut 22k of jobs in September, early indications for the sector are that this trend is continuing given October's decline in exports.
INDIA: CPI Print Puts RBI on Hold.
- India’s October CPI rose more than expected.
- Consumer prices rose +6.21% YoY, an increase from last month’s release of 5.49% YoY.
- Given the late seasonal rains in Southern regions, it was forecast that a material increase in food prices would be evident.
- Food prices rose +9.7% YOY driven by vegetable prices and edible oils.
- Economists had predicted that the CPI print would be +5.90%, remaining below the RBI’s upper band of 6%.
- The RBI has been criticized of late for maintaining its GDP forecast of +7.2%.
- With CPI now above their upper limit, and a bullish growth outlook, the December 06 final meeting of the year is likely to see the Central Bank on hold.
- The market pricing indicates limited expectations for rate cuts for the next meeting and for 2025, has priced in almost 90% of two cuts in the base rate.
CHINA: Bond Wrap: China Issuing in USD again.
- China Begins to Market in Saudi Arabia Its First Dollar Bonds in Three Years (source: BBG).
- China Taps Global Bankers for Feedback to Lift Market Confidence (source: BBG).
- Equity markets struggling again today with the Hang Seng -0.63%, Shenzhen Comp -0.97%, Shanghai Comp flat whilst CSI 300 +0.07%.
2yr 1.405% 5yr 1.708% 10yr 2.069% 30yr 2.234%
ASIA FX: USD/CNH Lower Post Stronger Fixing, USD/KRW Supported As Equities Fall
In North East Asia FX, USD/CNH dipped post the stronger CNY fixing. The error term, in USD/CNY terms, was over 400pips, the widest since early August. This suggests push back on the recent yuan depreciation trend. Lows in USD/CNH were seen at 7.2260, but we sit higher now at 7.2340, around 0.1% stronger in CNH terms. Recent highs have been at 7.2555. For onshore spot we got sub 7.2200 in early trade, but now sit higher.
- Onshore China equities are around flat, but the Hong Kong back drop is softer, albeit up from lows. The HSI last around -1% lower, and still sub 20000.
- Spot USD/KRW tested above 1410 in early trade, but found some support from the firmer yuan. We got to lows of 1403.9, but sit back closer to 1408 now. The onshore equity market is off -2%, amid broader tech headwinds. The FSC Vice Chair stated they will take action if markets are unstable. Earlier data showed the unemployment rate edging up, while employment growth cooling. This adds to the BoK easing case at the margins.
- Spot USD/TWD is relatively steady, last near 32.45, still close to recent highs.
ASIA FX: USD/MYR Higher, Thai FinMin Aims For Higher Growth In 2025
In South East Asia, trends are mixed in the first part of Wednesday trade. MYR continues to give back a part of the Aug/Sep gains. The pair was last near 4.4550, still well off earlier YTD highs around 4.8000. Still we are up 8.8% from end Sep lows near 4.0950.
- Ringgit is around 0.35% weaker so far today, showing little positive spill over from a slightly firmer yuan backdrop. The authorities have stated they can stabilize FX markets if needed. More resistance may appear around the 4.5000 level, which we broke down through in early August.
- USD/THB went higher in early trade, but after getting to 34.86 we turned lower, aided by a slightly softer USD tone/stronger yuan. The pair was last 34.70/75, around 0.20% stronger in baht terms. The Thailand FinMin has been on the wires, stating would like to see growth at 3.5% next year (this year's forecast is 2.7%), and inflation back to 2%. It was added the government would stick to fiscal discipline, keeping public debt to GDP sub 70%. More fiscal measures will be discussed next Tuesday (per RTRS & BBG).
- This implies a role for monetary policy which the FinMin wants to be more accommodative. Local Thailand equities are outperforming so far today, up 0.90%, but remains within recent ranges.
- Spot USD/PHP has been supported sub 58.70 so far today, while USD/IDR has been relatively steady, last still under 15800.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 13/11/2024 | 0945/0945 |  GB | BOE's Mann at Female Central Bankers panel | |
| 13/11/2024 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 13/11/2024 | 1200/0700 | ** |  US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 13/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 13/11/2024 | 1445/0945 | US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | |
| 13/11/2024 | 1800/1300 | US | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 13/11/2024 | 1830/1330 | US | Kansas City Fed's Jeffrey Schmid | |
| 13/11/2024 | 1900/1400 | ** | US | Treasury Budget |
| 14/11/2024 | 0030/1130 | *** |  AU | Labor Force Survey |
| 14/11/2024 | 0700/0800 | *** |  SE | Inflation Report |
| 14/11/2024 | 0800/0900 | *** |  ES | HICP (f) |
| 14/11/2024 | 0830/0930 |  EU | ECB's De Guindos remarks at event organised by ABC and Deloitte | |
| 14/11/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | GDP (p) |
| 14/11/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Industrial Production |
| 14/11/2024 | 1200/0700 | US | Fed Governor Adriana Kugler | |
| 14/11/2024 | 1230/1330 | EU | Publication of the ECB MonPol meeting account | |
| 14/11/2024 | - | GB | Rachel Reeves’ debut Mansion House dinner speech as chancellor | |
| 14/11/2024 | 1300/1300 | GB | BOE's Mann at Revitalising the global economy event | |
| 14/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 14/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | PPI |