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AUSTRALIA DATA: Soft Prices & Volumes Of Key Commodities Weigh On Export Growth

AUSTRALIA DATA

The merchandise trade surplus widened around $500mn to $6009mn in July with exports outpacing imports. Exports rose 0.7% m/m driven by rural goods, while imports fell 0.8% m/m due to fuels. The series are nominal and so are impacted by moves in global prices. 

Australia merchandise trade balance A$mn

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS

  • July exports fell 1.4% y/y improving from -2.8% in June. Rural goods rose 6% m/m to be down 2.9% y/y while non-rural fell 0.4% m/m to be down 4.5% y/y, due to weak coal and other mineral fuel shipments.
  • Coal, iron ore and LNG unit values were lower in July and then volumes were also down on the month for iron ore and coal ex thermal, making the shipments of our key commodities weak around mid-year.
  • Exports to China and Japan remain soft but have picked up to Korea, helped by commodities, India, UK and US.
  • Import growth has been easing since it peaked at 10.2% y/y in February and was only 3% y/y in July. The monthly drop was due to a 3.7% m/m decline in intermediate goods while consumer items rose 1.0% m/m and capex +1.6% m/m, which may be signalling some improvement in domestic demand. Machinery & equipment imports rose 6.3% m/m. 

Australia goods trade y/y% 3-mth ma

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS

 

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