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AUSTRALIA: Unemployment Forecast To Be Stable, Monitor The Details

AUSTRALIA
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October jobs data print on Thursday and analysts are again forecasting a 25k rise in employment but with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.1%. The labour market has surprised to the upside this year with more jobs created in the year to September than in 2023. It remains tight. The RBA noted in November that “some indicators have recently stabilised”, including hours worked, while the youth unemployment rate and underemployment have “declined”. Thus the details should be monitored too.

  • Employment forecasts recorded by Bloomberg are in a reasonably narrow range of +10k to +50k. The Q3 average was 51.9k with 64.1k in September. There may be an effect from people taking time off between jobs during school holidays with most schools closed in the first week of October and NSW/SA/Tasmania/ACT off for the first two weeks. 
  • In terms of the four large domestic banks CBA and Westpac are forecasting new jobs below consensus at 20k, while ANZ and NAB are above at +35k and +30k respectively.
  • The September unemployment rate printed at 4.067%, close to a rounded 4.0%. Analysts are between 4.0% and 4.3% for October with ANZ and NAB at consensus’ 4.1% but CBA and Westpac forecasting a 0.1pp rise to 4.2%.
  • The participation rate is expected to be unchanged at 67.2%, a record high.
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October jobs data print on Thursday and analysts are again forecasting a 25k rise in employment but with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.1%. The labour market has surprised to the upside this year with more jobs created in the year to September than in 2023. It remains tight. The RBA noted in November that “some indicators have recently stabilised”, including hours worked, while the youth unemployment rate and underemployment have “declined”. Thus the details should be monitored too.

  • Employment forecasts recorded by Bloomberg are in a reasonably narrow range of +10k to +50k. The Q3 average was 51.9k with 64.1k in September. There may be an effect from people taking time off between jobs during school holidays with most schools closed in the first week of October and NSW/SA/Tasmania/ACT off for the first two weeks. 
  • In terms of the four large domestic banks CBA and Westpac are forecasting new jobs below consensus at 20k, while ANZ and NAB are above at +35k and +30k respectively.
  • The September unemployment rate printed at 4.067%, close to a rounded 4.0%. Analysts are between 4.0% and 4.3% for October with ANZ and NAB at consensus’ 4.1% but CBA and Westpac forecasting a 0.1pp rise to 4.2%.
  • The participation rate is expected to be unchanged at 67.2%, a record high.