March 13, 2025 00:58 GMT
AUSTRALIA: Australia’s Disinflation As Good Or Better Than Others
AUSTRALIA
The RBA began its easing cycle in February with a 25bp cut bringing the OCR to 4.1% as it had “more confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards the midpoint” of the 2-3% target band. The trimmed mean, its preferred measure, eased to 3.2% in Q4 and was only 2.8% in January. In the past, it had cited sticky inflation, especially in services, in other OECD countries as something it was monitoring. The latest data show that while it remains stubborn in some place, Australian inflation is either in line or below other countries, which should make further easing possible if this is sustained and inflation continues heading lower.
- The RBA tightened monetary policy after and by less than other countries and as a result began its easing cycle later too. It has only cut by 25bp so far compared with the UK’s 75bp, US’ 100bp, NZ’s 175bp and euro area’s 185bp. The RBA remains cautious though noting that easing didn’t pre-commit it to further moves.
- Australia’s OCR is now below the US’, UK’s and Norway’s, which is consistent with recent inflation outcomes. Only Canada’s and the euro area’s measures of core inflation in January were below Australia’s monthly trimmed mean of 2.8% y/y.
OECD underlying CPI y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/ABS
- Although still at 3.6% y/y, Australia’s January services inflation was below other major countries, especially the UK at 5.0% y/y where wage growth remains elevated. Canada is the outlier at only 2.8% y/y.
- NZ took a different approach to reigning in inflation hiking rates to 5.5%, 115bp above Australia’s peak, and then easing 175bp compared with Australia’s 25bp. NZ’s core inflation in Q4 was only 0.1pp lower though, while services were still 0.5pp higher at 4.8%.
OECD services CPI y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/ABS
Keep reading...Show less
293 words