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AUSTRALIA: Australia’s Disinflation As Good Or Better Than Others

AUSTRALIA

The RBA began its easing cycle in February with a 25bp cut bringing the OCR to 4.1% as it had “more confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards the midpoint” of the 2-3% target band. The trimmed mean, its preferred measure, eased to 3.2% in Q4 and was only 2.8% in January. In the past, it had cited sticky inflation, especially in services, in other OECD countries as something it was monitoring. The latest data show that while it remains stubborn in some place, Australian inflation is either in line or below other countries, which should make further easing possible if this is sustained and inflation continues heading lower.

  • The RBA tightened monetary policy after and by less than other countries and as a result began its easing cycle later too. It has only cut by 25bp so far compared with the UK’s 75bp, US’ 100bp, NZ’s 175bp and euro area’s 185bp. The RBA remains cautious though noting that easing didn’t pre-commit it to further moves.
  • Australia’s OCR is now below the US’, UK’s and Norway’s, which is consistent with recent inflation outcomes. Only Canada’s and the euro area’s measures of core inflation in January were below Australia’s monthly trimmed mean of 2.8% y/y. 

OECD underlying CPI y/y%

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The RBA began its easing cycle in February with a 25bp cut bringing the OCR to 4.1% as it had “more confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards the midpoint” of the 2-3% target band. The trimmed mean, its preferred measure, eased to 3.2% in Q4 and was only 2.8% in January. In the past, it had cited sticky inflation, especially in services, in other OECD countries as something it was monitoring. The latest data show that while it remains stubborn in some place, Australian inflation is either in line or below other countries, which should make further easing possible if this is sustained and inflation continues heading lower.

  • The RBA tightened monetary policy after and by less than other countries and as a result began its easing cycle later too. It has only cut by 25bp so far compared with the UK’s 75bp, US’ 100bp, NZ’s 175bp and euro area’s 185bp. The RBA remains cautious though noting that easing didn’t pre-commit it to further moves.
  • Australia’s OCR is now below the US’, UK’s and Norway’s, which is consistent with recent inflation outcomes. Only Canada’s and the euro area’s measures of core inflation in January were below Australia’s monthly trimmed mean of 2.8% y/y. 

OECD underlying CPI y/y%

Keep reading...Show less