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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will deliver the Autumn Statement in the House of Commons at around 1230GMT (0730ET, 1330CET) following prime minister's questions (PMQ's pre-fiscal statements is usually strictly kept at 30 mins by the Speaker). Livestream of both PMQs and Autumn Statement can be found here.
- As we noted in our Autumn Statement Deep Dive, greater fiscal headroom than expected and the gov't 'hitting its target' of halving inflation by year-end has given rise to expectations of tax cuts to come later today. With Hunt having stated that any tax cuts cannot prove inflationary, the expectation of any shift to income tax rates or thresholds is low.
- Three areas have come into focus. Firstly, National Insurance contributions, paid by employees at 12% on earnings between GBP12,571 and GBP50,271 - and 2% on anything above that as well as by employers, are seen as likely to be reduced. Secondly, the minimum wage is set to rise.
- Thirdly, Hunt is expected to announce the permanent extension of the GBP9bn/annum "full expensing" tax break for businesses. This sort of measure is unlikely to prove an immediate vote winner, but is seen by the gov't as important for boosting the UK's sluggish growth rate.
- The Autumn Statement will be looked at for signals of when the next election might take place. Betting markets have Q424 as the most likely period for the vote to take place, with an implied probability of 58.5%. Q224 is the second-favourite, with a 23.3% implied probability.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Date of Next UK General Election (by Quarter), %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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