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US TSYS: Awaiting CPI Before Potential BoC Spillover and 10Y Supply

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries have pared earlier gains to broadly consolidate yesterday’s sell-off, with a move continuing later in the session on partial tariff reprieve.
  • Focus is firmly on the February CPI report but there is also potential spillover from the BoC decision, almost fully expected to cut 25bp but, again from a spillover angle, likely risks from any dovish surprises.
  • It’s followed by 10Y supply after last month’s auction saw a 1bp tail but some better details on take-up distribution.
  • Cash yields are within +/- 0.5bps of yesterday’s close.  
  • 2s10s at 33.5bp (-0.4bp) is still towards the higher end of the past month’s range.
  • TYM5 at 110-28+ (+ 01+) holds close to yesterday’s low of 110-25+, on more modest cumulative volumes of 310k after some heavy overnight sessions recently.
  • Support is seen at 110-12+ (Mar 6 low) before 110-00 (Feb 7 high) but the trend structure is still bullish. Yesterday’s high of 111-25 pierced resistance to open 112-021 (Mar 4 high) and 112-02 (Fibo projection).
  • Data: CPI Feb (0830ET), Federal budget balance Feb (1400ET)
  • Coupon issuance: US Tsy to sell $39bn 10Y Note reopen - 91282CMM0 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $60bn 17-W bills (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries have pared earlier gains to broadly consolidate yesterday’s sell-off, with a move continuing later in the session on partial tariff reprieve.
  • Focus is firmly on the February CPI report but there is also potential spillover from the BoC decision, almost fully expected to cut 25bp but, again from a spillover angle, likely risks from any dovish surprises.
  • It’s followed by 10Y supply after last month’s auction saw a 1bp tail but some better details on take-up distribution.
  • Cash yields are within +/- 0.5bps of yesterday’s close.  
  • 2s10s at 33.5bp (-0.4bp) is still towards the higher end of the past month’s range.
  • TYM5 at 110-28+ (+ 01+) holds close to yesterday’s low of 110-25+, on more modest cumulative volumes of 310k after some heavy overnight sessions recently.
  • Support is seen at 110-12+ (Mar 6 low) before 110-00 (Feb 7 high) but the trend structure is still bullish. Yesterday’s high of 111-25 pierced resistance to open 112-021 (Mar 4 high) and 112-02 (Fibo projection).
  • Data: CPI Feb (0830ET), Federal budget balance Feb (1400ET)
  • Coupon issuance: US Tsy to sell $39bn 10Y Note reopen - 91282CMM0 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $60bn 17-W bills (1130ET)