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Awaiting Data and Announcements In US Session

BONDS

EGBs and Gilts sit weaker this morning, with curves bear steepening. USTs outperform and bull flatten on the day, though this comes off the back of a spike in volumes and weakness across Treasury futures (>200k traded in just two minutes) seen in late US trading yesterday after the official futures close.

  • Today currently sees low volumes and a thin data docket, owing to the All Saint's day holiday across most of Europe, with markets waiting for the US session which features data (ADP, JOLTS, ISM Manuf) and key announcements (Fed, Treasury Refunding).
  • TY1 futures are down -0-4+ today at 106-01 with 10y UST yields down -2.6bp at 4.906% and the 2s10s down -0.8bp today at -16.5bp. Note the inconsistency between futures and cash here is due to different "close" times as noted above.
  • Bund futures are down -0.38 today at 128.61 and 10y Bund yields up 3.5bp at 2.839%, with the 2s10s curve up 2.9bp today at -17.8bp. Gilts sit similarly, with futures down -0.40 today at 92.76 and 10y yields up 4.2bp at 4.551%. There are no scheduled ECB speakers today, and UK markets await the BoE decision tomorrow (where unchanged rates are expected).
  • Peripheries are mixed, with Portuguese and Greek spreads tighter vs Bunds and the 10-year BTP/Bund spread 2.3bps wider at 199.9bps at typing.

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