BA/ML analysts said the 2pm ET July 25-26...>

US VIEW: BA/ML analysts said the 2pm ET July 25-26 FOMC minutes "should confirm

the impending caps on Fed reinvestments, as well as provide some guidance on how

reinvestments above the cap will evolve. Another wake-up call for the mkt could

be the (Nov.) quarterly refunding announcement which may indicate increasing US

Treasury cpn supply: the next policy statement is scheduled for Nov. 1" but

"headwinds related to being past peak-QE may only build gradually."

- MUFG Secs strategist John Herrmann said FOMC mins "may be a touch 'stale' as

economic, mkt and corporate earnings data" since were "far more constructive

than consensus expectations." But he adds "still" key to read them "carefully

for any nuances" on "monetary policy outlook;" but NY Fed Pres. Dudley's Aug.14

comments "are more current" as incorporate "fully the latest stream of positive

data on the health of corporations, labor markets and the economy." 

- He said Dudley had suggested "at least some influential FOMC participants are

increasingly confident that a Sept. launch of its Balance Sheet Normalization

program likely may go off without triggering a 'tantrum' in long-dated Tsy Bond

prices."