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US TSYS: Back Little Changed And Outperforming Europe Pre-FOMC

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries have pared gains seen in Asia hours to leave them broadly unchanged ahead of today’s FOMC-focused session, outperforming Gilts and EGBs.
  • Cash yields range between unch to 0.5bps higher. 20s and 30s lead the increase with the long end possibly seeing some lethargy after yesterday’s 20Y auction tailed by 1.5bp, an auction that was better than November’s but certainly not better than most.
  • TYH5 sits at 109-25 (-04) having kept to Tuesday’s range throughout, on particularly low volumes of 150k.
  • A bear threat is still seen, with support at 109-17 (Dec 17 low) before potentially 109-04+ (equates to 4.50% yield). Both sit above a bear trigger at 109-02+ (Nov 15 low) although note that TYZ4 was trading as the active contract then. To the upside, resistance is seen at 110-17+ (20-day EMA), a break of which would highlight an early bullish development.
  • Data: Weekly MBA data (0700ET), Housing starts/building permits Nov (0830ET), Current account Q3 (0830ET)
  • Fed: FOMC decision/SEP (1400ET), Powell press conference (1430ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $64bn 17-week bills (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries have pared gains seen in Asia hours to leave them broadly unchanged ahead of today’s FOMC-focused session, outperforming Gilts and EGBs.
  • Cash yields range between unch to 0.5bps higher. 20s and 30s lead the increase with the long end possibly seeing some lethargy after yesterday’s 20Y auction tailed by 1.5bp, an auction that was better than November’s but certainly not better than most.
  • TYH5 sits at 109-25 (-04) having kept to Tuesday’s range throughout, on particularly low volumes of 150k.
  • A bear threat is still seen, with support at 109-17 (Dec 17 low) before potentially 109-04+ (equates to 4.50% yield). Both sit above a bear trigger at 109-02+ (Nov 15 low) although note that TYZ4 was trading as the active contract then. To the upside, resistance is seen at 110-17+ (20-day EMA), a break of which would highlight an early bullish development.
  • Data: Weekly MBA data (0700ET), Housing starts/building permits Nov (0830ET), Current account Q3 (0830ET)
  • Fed: FOMC decision/SEP (1400ET), Powell press conference (1430ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $64bn 17-week bills (1130ET)