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Backlash Continues Over Primacy Law

POLAND
  • Poland sought to assuage outrage among its European Union partners after Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said the bloc could start "the third world war" by withholding the country's access to funds in a dispute over democratic values (BBG).
  • As a reminder, the EU decided to delay the 36bn EUR in pandemic aid following the ruling that the Polish constitution has primacy over EU laws.
  • Growth expectations could be reviewed significantly to the downside in case EU delays the stimulus package, pausing a threat to Polish risky assets.
  • In addition, the rise in Covid uncertainty could also lead to a significant downward revision in growth expectations, pausing a threat to the policy outlook and therefore weighing on PLN.
  • Next important data to watch will be October CPI, coming out on October 29.
  • Today (4pm London time), Polish President Andrzej Duda will swear in new ministers following a government reshuffle that's expected to be announced on Tuesday (BBG).

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