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  • Chinese economic activity continued to decelerate in June according to the Li Keqiang index, which is an economic measurement index that tracks China's economy using three indicators - railway cargo volume, electricity consumption and loans disbursed by banks.
  • The chart below shows that the Li Keqiang index has been plunging since its peak reached in February, from a high of 17.61 to 8.05, and generally tends to be a good leading indicator of copper prices.
  • Even though some analysts have described the index as an old indicator that does not necessarily represents the Chinese 'new economy', a series of financial assets have also peaked in mid February (i.e. Chinese equities down nearly 15% since mid February).
  • Hence, the selling pressure on copper prices could continue in the near to medium term (copper prices are down 10% since May 10).
  • Copper front month futures has been trending higher this week and is currently testing it 50DMA at 441.83; a break above that level would open the door for a move up to 450. On the downside, key support to watch stands at 400, followed by 390.60 (200DMA).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI