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BAER; Equity Relief, Credit Has Some Way To Tighten Back To Peers

FINANCIALS

Julius Baer (BAER SW) is one of the top performers in SXXP equity world today yet its cash curve remains relatively unmoved.


  • Today has achieved two things; firstly put a number to the Signa losses, albeit it well after the event. Secondly, the CEO is going; clearly not someone rated highly by the equity community.
  • For CHF credit investors, BAER’s largest CHF line (BAER 0 1/8 04/27/28) has, since this situation started, traded out from UBP’s tights all the way through most CHF peers. The equity community is clearly showing relief today and we do note the positive net new money figures the bank posted.
  • Assuming the Swiss regulator’s investigation is not a credit-negative event (which is difficult to foresee after their approach to the Credit Suisse AT1s last Spring, surely not the same mistake twice), there appears a lot of potential tightening back to the pack (see image).

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