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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
THB
Spot USD/THB gapped higher and has made further headway beyond trendline resistance. Tailwind from broader risk aversion/demand for the greenback have overlapped with the potential for tighter Covid-19 restrictions in Thailand, making the baht the worst performer among Asian EMFX.
- Thai Health Min Anutin said that the gov't may consider extending lockdown to areas beyond the Samut Sakhon province where the authorities detected the recent outbreak of Covid-19, with ministers also set to discuss restrictions on New Year activities. Dep PM Wissanu added that the cabinet will discuss a new communicable disease bill on Tuesday. The debate will focus on infections found in undocumented migrant workers. Worth reminding that Thailand's Covid-19 panel meets today.
- On Sunday, Thai authorities decided to lock down Samut Sakhon after a new Covid-19 outbreak in the seaside province drove daily nationwide case count to a record high. Most of the 689 new cases detected in Samut Sakhon were among migrant workers from Myanmar. Samut Sakhon is a m'fing/seafood industry hub and local lockdown measures are expected to significantly affect food producers.
- The news came after Friday's announcement that Thailand will ease travel curbs on visitors from 56 countries in an attempt to provide relief to domestic tourism sector. A Center for Covid-19 Situation Administration spokesman said that tourists will be allowed to enter without prior visas, but will still need to self-isolate and carry a health certificate.
- Elsewhere, Thailand's National Vaccine Institute Director told the FT that the country plans to inoculate up to 50% of its population in 2021 (this is the only specific numerical target agreed so far) and "we should aim for" 70% in 2022, which would produce herd immunity against Covid-19.
- The rate sits +18 pips at THB30.00 as we type. The breach of a trendline resistance has coincided with a move in the RSI above the 30 level, sending a bullish signal. Gains past Nov 24 high of THB30.43 would provide further support for the bullish case. Meanwhile, a dip through Dec 18 low of THB29.76 (worst level since 2013) would open up the lower 2.0% Bollinger band at THB29.67.
- On Wednesday, the BoT will deliver its latest MonPol decision, with most analysts expecting policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged.
- Data-wise, focus in Thailand falls on customs trade report (Wednesday) and the weekly update on foreign reserves (Friday).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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