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Baht Gains Despite Thai FPO's Growth Forecast Downgrade


Spot USD/THB has been offered, catching up with overnight greenback sales, despite warnings re: Thailand's growth prospects from one of the FinMin depts. The rate last sits -5 pips at THB29.99.

  • Thai Finance Ministry's Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) reduced Thailand's growth forecast to +2.8% Y/Y from the +4.5% projected in Oct. FPO Director-General cited "an expected decrease in foreign tourist arrivals" as a reason for the downgrade. The estimated number of tourist arrivals for 2021 was revised lower to 5mn from 8mn.
  • Thailand ranked 4th out of 98 countries for its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a study by the Lowy Institute.
  • PM Prayuth chairs a meeting of the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration, during which members will discuss potential easing of restrictions on business operations.
  • A fall through trendline support at THB29.96 would shift focus to Jan 21 low of THB29.92. On the flip side, gains past the 50-DMA at THB30.10 would expose Jan 18 high of THB30.13.
  • Thailand reports BoP current account balance & trade data later today.
  • Looking further afield, next week will see the release of Markit M'fing PMI & Business Sentiment Index (Monday) as well as CPI data (Friday). On Wednesday, the BoT will release its latest MonPol decision, with all 8 economists surveyed by BBG so far expecting no change to the main policy rate.

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