MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bear Cycle in AUD/USD
Price Signal Summary – Bear Cycle in AUD/USD
- S&P E-Minis trend conditions are unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Fresh cycle highs confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply lower on Oct 15. The contract has recently pierced support around the 50-day EMA, at 4947.10. A clear break of this average would undermine a recent bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal.
- GBPUSD has recovered from its recent lows, however, a bearish theme remains intact. Last Wednesday’s break lower confirmed a resumption of the current bear cycle. An important support at 1.3002, the Sep 11 low, has been breached. USDJPY has pulled back from last week’s high - this appears to be a shallow correction. The pair maintains a firmer tone and bullish signals remain intact with price trading above the 50-day EMA. A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest shallow recovery appears to be a correction. Price has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This exposes 0.6622, the Sep 11 low and a key support.
- Gold continues to appreciate. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary bull trend. The yellow metal has also cleared $2700.0, reinforcing current trend conditions. WTI futures remain softer following last week’s gains sell-off. An extension lower would threaten the recent bullish theme and expose support at $66.33, the Oct 1 low, and $64.61, the Sep 10 low and a key support.
- Bund futures are trading at their recent highs. The latest gains are for now, considered corrective. However, the contract has breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would be a bullish development and highlight a possible reversal. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains present and the latest recovery is considered corrective - for now. Note that recent gains have allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.1040 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 1.0997 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0969 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0917 High Oct 15
- PRICE: 1.0859 @ 05:52 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 1.0811/0778 Low Oct 17 / Low Aug 1 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.0746 76.4% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0710 Low Jul 2
- SUP 4: 1.0666 Low Jun 26
A bear cycle in EURUSD remains in play. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this reinforces the current downward trend condition. A recent double top pattern also highlights a reversal. The move down has exposed 1.0778, the Aug 1 low and the next key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0969 the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.3434 High Sep 26 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 2: 1.3274 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3077/3117 High Oct 16 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3043 @ 06:07 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 1.2974 Low Oct 17
- SUP 2: 1.2959 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.2890 Low Aug 18
- SUP 4: 1.2846 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
GBPUSD has recovered from its recent lows, however, a bearish theme remains intact. Last Wednesday’s break lower confirmed a resumption of the current bear cycle. An important support at 1.3002, the Sep 11 low, has been breached. This also reinforces a bear theme and opens 1.2959, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 1.3117, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average is required to signal a reversal.
EURGBP TECHS: Potential Base Building
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8453 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 0.8362/8434 20-day EMA / High Oct 3 and reversal trigger
- PRICE: 0.8328 @ 06:24 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 0.8295 Low Oct 18
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
Demand for EURGBP off the lows Friday helped the cross rally well off new pullback lows. Friday’s activity highlights a possible early reversal signal and if correct, a short-term base. However, for now trend signals remain bearish and resistance is intact. A resumption of weakness would open 0.8276, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 0.8362, the 20-day EMA. Key trend resistance has been defined at 0.8434, the Oct 3 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Shallow Correction
- RES 4: 153.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.94 Low Jul 25
- RES 2: 150.76 50.0% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 150.32 High Oct 17
- PRICE: 149.33 @ 06:44 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 148.30/147.28 Low Oct 10 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 145.92 Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 143.43/141.65 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 140.45 Low Sep 18
USDJPY has pulled back from last week’s high - this appears to be a shallow correction. The pair maintains a firmer tone and bullish signals remain intact with price trading above the 50-day EMA. The recent break of this average marked a bullish development highlighting a stronger reversal. Sights are on 150.76, 50% of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg. Initial firm support to watch is 147.28, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal.
EURJPY TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 166.53 High Jul 31
- RES 3: 165.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 163.89 High Aug 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 163.61 High Oct 10
- PRICE: 162.19 @ 06:58 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 161.87 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 158.11/155.15 Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 16
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
EURJPY is unchanged and remains closer to its latest highs. A medium-term bearish trend condition is intact and a reversal lower would open 158.11, the Sep 30 low, and the first important support. Note that the cross continues to trade close to two key resistance points - 163.49, the Sep 27 high (pierced) and 163.89, the Aug 15 high. Clearance of both levels would highlight a potential reversal.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 0.6984 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - 29 - Sep 11 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6942 High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6852/6889 High Oct 4 / 3
- RES 1: 0.6752 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6688 @ 07:28 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 0.6658 Low Oct 16
- SUP 2: 0.6646 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6622 Low Sep 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.6576 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest shallow recovery appears to be a correction. Price has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This exposes 0.6622, the Sep 11 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and open 0.6576, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance has been defined at 0.6942, the Sep 30 high. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6752, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Last Week’s High
- RES 4: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.3992 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.3946 High Aug 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3839 High Oct 15
- PRICE: 1.3821 @ 07:57 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 1.3747/3675 Low Oct 14 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
- SUP 3: 1.3473/3420 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.3413 Low Feb 9
The USDCAD trend outlook remains bullish and the pair is trading higher today. Sights are on last week’s 1.3839 high (Oct 15). The pair has recently pierced 1.3822, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg. A clear break of this level would reinforce a bullish theme and open 1.3946, the Aug 5 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3675, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective and allow an overbought condition to unwind.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 135.24 High Oct 3
- RES 3: 134.88 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 134.48 50.0% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg
- RES 1: 134.25 High Oct 16 / 18
- PRICE: 134.11 @ 05:32 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 133.30/132.75 Low Oct 15 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2 132.65 Low Sep 2 and a key support:
- SUP 3: 132.25 Low Jul 29
- SUP 4: 131.66 Low Jul 26
Bund futures are trading at their recent highs. The latest gains are for now, considered corrective. However, the contract has breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation higher would be a bullish development and highlight a possible reversal, signalling scope for an extension. This would open 134.48, a Fibonacci retracement. 132.75, the Oct 10 low, marks key support and bear trigger. A break of it would resume a bearish theme.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 120.190 High Oct 3
- RES 3: 119.875 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 119.635 50.0% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg
- RES 1: 119.620 High Oct 18
- PRICE: 119.540 @ 05:42 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 119.010/118.620 Low Oct 15 / 10
- SUP 2: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 117.789 123.6% retrace projection of the Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull leg
Recent gains in Bobl futures are - for now - considered corrective. Note that the cross has traded through its 20-day EMA. An extension of the latest rally would signal scope for a climb towards 119.635 next and 119.875, Fibonacci retracement points. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 118.620, the Oct 10 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the recent bear trend.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Trading Above The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 107.157 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 / 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 2: 107.047 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 / 10 bear leg
- RES 1: 107.025 High Oct 18
- PRICE: 106.990 @ 05:38 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 106.745/580 Low Oct 15 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.520 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 106.328 123.6% retracement proj of Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 106.209 138.2% retracement proj of Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull cycle
Schatz futures traded higher Friday and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. For now, the recent recovery is considered corrective. However, the contract is trading above its 20-day EMA, at 106.900. An extension higher would open 107.047 next, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a resumption of bearish price action would refocus attention on 106.580, the Oct 10 low and the bear trigger.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Trading Below Resistance For Now
- RES 4: 100.19 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 99.47 High Oct and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 98.68 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 10 bear leg
- RES 1: 98.11 Low Sep 2 and a key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 97.92 @ Close Oct 18
- SUP 1: 96.97/95.83 High Oct 15 and gap low / Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 95.47 1.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 94.90 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 94.99 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains present and the latest recovery is considered corrective - for now. Note that recent gains have allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. The contract remains below resistance at 98.11, the Sep 2 low. A continuation higher and a break of 98.11 would open 98.68, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on key support at 95.83, Oct 10 low. A break of it resumes a bearish theme.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Approaching Key Resistance
- RES 4: 123.40 3.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 1: 122.62 High Oct 1 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 122.38 @ Close Oct 18
- SUP 1: 121.09119.97 20-day EMA / Low Oct 11 and key support
- SUP 2: 119.58 38.2% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.64 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 117.34 Low Jul 26
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures is bullish. Last week’s rally marks an extension of the recent bounce from the Oct 11 low. It also signals the end of the latest corrective pullback. A continuation higher has exposed key resistance at 122.62, the Oct 1 high, where a break would resume the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 119.97, the Oct 11 low. Clearance of this level would instead resume the recent bear leg.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Support Lies At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5256.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 4995.00 @ 06:23 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 4947.10/4914.00 50-day EMA / Low Oct 16
- SUP 2: 4884.06 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4815.50 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
Eurostoxx 50 futures traded sharply lower on Oct 15. The contract has recently pierced support around the 50-day EMA, at 4947.10. A clear break of this average would undermine a recent bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 4884.06, a Fibonacci retracement. The contract has recovered from its recent lows. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 5106.00, the Sep 30 high. A break of it resumes the uptrend.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 6012.75 1.00 projection of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6000.00 Psychological handle
- RES 2: 5961.00 1.00 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 5927.25 High Oct 17
- PRICE: 5902.75 @ 07:15 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: 5816.87/5729.25 20-and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 5724.00 Low Oct 2
- SUP 3: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 13
S&P E-Minis trend conditions are unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Fresh cycle highs confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode setup, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 5961.00, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 5816.87, the 20-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (Z4) Bearish Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $85.54 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $83.02 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $81.16/47 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $75.67 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $73.22 @ 06:59 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: $72.50 - Low Oct 18
- SUP 2: $69.91/68.29 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $67.73 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $66.12 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures traded lower Friday and a bearish tone remains intact. A continuation down would expose support at $69.91, the Oct 1 low, and $68.29, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead refocus attention on the key resistance at $81.16, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level resumes the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is at $75.67, the 50-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (X4) Maintains A Softer Tone
- RES 4: $81.75 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $79.69 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $76.24/78.46 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.12 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $69.54 @ 07:07 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: $69.44 - Low Oct 17
- SUP 2: $66.33/64.61 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.89 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
WTI futures remain softer following last week’s gains sell-off. An extension lower would threaten the recent bullish theme and expose support at $66.33, the Oct 1 low, and $64.61, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a resumption of gains would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $78.46, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume to the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is at $72.12, the 50-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: $2800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2767.1 - 3.236 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 2: $2737.8 - 3.00 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2732.8 - High Oct 21
- PRICE: $2724.4 @ 07:14 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: $2637.0/2604.9 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 8
- SUP 2: $2584.9 - Low Sep 20
- SUP 3: $2573.7 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $2531.8 - High Aug 20
Gold continues to appreciate . Last week’s gains resulted in a break of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary bull trend. The yellow metal has also cleared $2700.0, reinforcing current trend conditions. Sights are on $2737.8, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support is $2645.1, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
SILVER TECHS: Impulsive Rally
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 swing
- RES 3: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 2: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 1: $34.284 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- PRICE: $34.128 @ 08:14 BST Oct 21
- SUP 1: $31.440/30.574 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $29.506 - Trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 and a key support
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and Friday’s strong rally plus today’s bullish start to the week, reinforces the current trend set-up and confirms a resumption of the bull cycle. The rally signals scope for an extension towards $34.3284 and $35.167, Fibonacci projection points. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend for now. Initial firm support lies at $31.440, the 20-day EMA.