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Bailey at TSC says that we've seen slight downside news on inflation this year

BOE
  • Bailey said we've seen slight downside news on inflation this year.
  • Seen a weakening picture of demand in the economy. Some weakening on the quantity side of the labour market - little bit hard to read at the moment. On wages, some signs of evidence coming off but still not at levels consistent with target.
  • Have seen signs that policy setting is restrictive which should bring inflation back to target.
  • Asked if reached Table Mountain - says there is a case for holding the rate where it is for an extended period. But the risks to rates are on the upside. One is that the domestic effects of inflation (particularly supply side of the economy) - have raised assessment of equilibrium rate of unemployment. Do seem upside risks to wage pressure from there. Also risks from Middle East. Oil price is actually lower than at the MPR- but there's still a risk here.
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