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Free AccessBailey to speak later on R*
- Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is due to give a speech this evening at 18:00BST which is entitled “The policy landscape: structural change, global R * and the missing-investment puzzle”. There will be intense focus on whether Bailey answers the question of where he estimates R* to be for the UK, and whether he thinks that the MPC will need to raise rates above this level in order to keep inflation under control.
- Outgoing external MPC member Saunders (whose last MPC meeting will be in August) has said that market estimates of R* between 1.25-2.50% seem reasonable.
- Chief Economist Huw Pill has previously played down the importance of R*, noting that it is highly uncertain where the level is, and it was more useful as a concept when it was clear Bank Rate was clearly below R*.
- Catherine Mann was asked at the MNI Connect event by former MPC member Jan Vlieghe why the MPC has not communicated its thoughts on R* and whether Bank Rate will need to exceed this or not. She said that there were a lot of difficulties in putting a number on R* and refused to be drawn on a level.
- Note that in the BoE’s Survey of Market Participants conducted ahead of the June MPC meeting, in response to a question asking for estimates of the neutral rate for UK Bank Rate the median response was 2.00%.
- Based on current market pricing, we will see Bank Rate of 2.00% by September, with a terminal between 2.75-3.00% reached in H1-23.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.