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Balance of Risks Still Biased Towards Pro-Inflationary Ones

RUSSIA
Highlights from the CBR policy statement:
  • The current rate of price growth has increased since the end of 2022 but remains moderate, including for sustainable components. Inflationary expectations of the population decreased. At the same time, they remain at an elevated level, as are the price expectations of enterprises.
  • In the context of a gradual increase in the current inflationary pressure, the Bank of Russia at the next meetings will evaluate the feasibility of raising the key rate to stabilize inflation near 4% in 2024 and beyond.
  • According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, taking into account the ongoing monetary policy, annual inflation will be 4.5-6.5% in 2023 and will return to 4% in 2024.
  • Over the medium term, the balance of risks has not changed significantly and is still biased towards pro-inflationary ones. Significant pro-inflationary risks are associated with the impact of geopolitical tensions on the terms of foreign trade.
  • If the budget deficit expands further, pro-inflationary risks will increase and tighter monetary policy may be needed to bring inflation back to the target
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