Free Trial

Balance Sheet Update: 2 Weeks To Go For TGA Drawdown

FED

The Treasury's cash balance at the Fed ($704.9B in the latest week to Jul 14, down $48.3B from the prior week) continues to draw attention ahead of the Aug 1 expiry of the current suspension of the debt limit.

  • Wrightson ICAP wrote that the Treasury's decision this week to leave the 4-week bill offering size unchanged at $40B (despite $5B cuts to each of the 17-week and 8-week bill sizes) "seems like a pretty clear signal that this round of bill cutbacks has come to an end."


Source: Federal Reserve, MNI


  • As such, Wrightson ICAP expects the TGA to end the month $40B above the Treasury's $450B projection made a couple of months ago. That's on the basis of Wrightson ICAP's cash flow projections - that $30B gap could yet be filled by larger net outflows than expected.
  • All else being equal, a slower drawdown in the TGA would be associated with slower system reserve growth, and thus slightly less downward pressure on money market rates.



LiabilitiesReservesUS Treasury General AccountReverse Repo (Foreign)Reverse Repo (Dealers)Currency In CirculationOther*
Last Week's Net Change (USDbn)88.5-48.4-12.6339.00.70.7
4-Week Net Change (USD bn)39.051.028.274.39.0-328.7
Total Holdings (USD bn)3944.7704.9251.0860.02187.6302.8

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.