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Banco Mizuho on Brazil Business Confidence/Growth

BRAZIL
  • According to FGV, business confidence in Brazil fell a further 0.5% M/m in February, marking its fourth consecutive month of decline. The current conditions sub-index dropped 3.5% M/m, while the expectations sub-index rebounded 2.1%.
  • Confidence was mixed among the sectors covered in the survey in February, with declines in industry (-1.7% M/m) and service (-2.2% M/m) and increases in commerce (2.5% M/m) and construction (1.0% M/m). Industry confidence fell for a seventh consecutive month and it is now at the lowest level since July 2020. But the sector’s index remains above others.
  • Overall, the survey suggests that the rebound in economic activity at the end of last year is likely to be short-lived. Indeed, the service sector ́s cyclical recovery has shown signs of exhaustion and the industry sector is expected to continue facing high production costs and input supply problems for a while yet. Mizuho expect any growth this year to be moderate.

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