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Bank Rate Now Seen Peaking At 5%, BoE Dhingra's Speech Eyed

STIR
BoE hiking prospects have followed the global hawkish trend since the Powell commentary yesterday. 25bp is fully priced for the March 23rd MPC (with ~10% prob of a 50), as is a further 25bp in May, with the implied rate curve flattening out somewhat thereafter.
  • But that path also includes a third 25bp hike nearly fully priced for June MPC, and implied pricing at one point this morning had Bank Rate peaking at ~5% by November vs the current 4% rate.
  • Of note this morning at 0930GMT: Swati Dhingra will make her first official speech as an MPC member at the Resolution Foundation (link here), entitled “A cost of living crisis: Inflation during an unprecedented terms of trade shock”.
  • As we noted in our Gilt Week Ahead, while it will be important to pay attention to Dhingra’s comments, it is questionable how market moving this will be. She has been on the dovish side of the debate ever since joining the MPC and after voting for no hike, she isn’t in the group of swing members who have the potential to determine the outcome of the next rate decision.
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