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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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- Against the backdrop of regional banking deposit flight, it’s surprising that loans and leases in bank credit saw their second largest seasonally adjusted weekly increase since the pandemic at $63B (a similar $54B in non-seasonally adjusted terms) after a trend slowdown in credit growth.
- The sharp increase could be a sign of companies drawing down credit lines on worries about limited future access if banks pull them and/or fail and is worth watching closely ahead.
- The increases were led by all sectors (ex-consumer loans) rather than any single specific category. Within real estate, a continued increase in commercial real estate was of note considering the oversized contribution from small banks (shares further below).
- For context, 2022 saw small domestic banks represent a slight majority of bank credit extension, despite an aggregate loan book only being about two-thirds the size of those of large domestic banks.
- Using as a crude high frequency indicator of credit conditions, this coming Friday’s update with data for the week ending Mar 22 might give a better idea of any initial tightening as regional banking woes developed.
- For now at least, there has been little sign of it in latest mortgage rates when focusing on the residential real estate subset with only a limited further rise in spreads in the time since the SVB failure.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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