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Banorte Revise 2023 Year-End CPI Forecast Lower, Maintain +50BP Hike Call

MEXICO
  • Considering recent dynamics, Banorte have revised their 2023 year-end forecast to 4.8% from 5.4%. The improvement is mainly explained by two factors: (1) A better outlook for energy –both LP gas and gasolines; and (2) the expectation of more modest increases in agricultural goods.
  • Their estimate for the core component stands at 5.6% (previous: 5.7%). They believe pressures could continue on core readings, stemming from: (1) The 20% increase to the minimum wage; (2) the possibility of higher resiliency in economic activity; and (3) heftier price increases in tourism given changes on labor laws.
  • On monetary policy, the market is pricing in that Banxico will raise the benchmark rate for the last time in February to 11.00%, equivalent to a 50bps hike, in line with Banorte’s call.
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