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BanRep To Publish Monetary Policy Report Following 100Bp Rate Hike

COLOMBIA
  • Colombia central bank publishes its quarterly monetary inflation report with updated macroeconomic forecasts for growth, inflation, current account balance, among others.
  • As a reminder on Friday, the BanRep board voted 5-2 to raise the benchmark interest rate 100bps to 4.0% with two dissenting board members voting for a 75-basis point increase. This was above the majority of analysts forecasts for a smaller acceleration in the pace of tightening.
  • Inflation results in 2021 led to a significant increase in inflation expectations from a variety of sources, among them inflation excluding food. The technical staff revised its headline and core inflation forecasts upward to 4.3% and 4.5% respectively in 2022, and to 3.4% and 3.6% in 2023.
  • The current account balance of payments is expected to close 2021 with a deficit of around 5.7% of GDP. This would be expected to moderate in 2022 to 4.9%.
  • Governor Villar affirmed that the future implementation of policy decisions will continue to be data dependent and withdrew references to a potential terminal rate. The central bank head stated that the real interest rate remains in negative territory and monetary policy is ‘widely expansionary’. Villar said the output gap is slightly negative and that he expects food inflation to begin easing in Q2.
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