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Banxico Inflation Report Due Tomorrow, US PCE Deflator in Focus

MEXICO
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  • There are no major data releases in Mexico today. Attention will be on Banxico’s latest inflation report which will be published on Wednesday, followed by April unemployment data on Thursday. For global markets and fed pricing, all eyes will be on the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, the PCE deflator.
  • The market maintains roughly a 60% probability of a 25bps Banxico cut in June and an accumulated adjustment of around -79bps for the year vs -73bps in the prior week. JPMorgan believe that encouraging news on growth and positive news on core inflation in 1H May will be important. JPM think one print is not nearly enough to talk about a change of trend, but the Banxico committee will likely be encouraged by it.
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  • There are no major data releases in Mexico today. Attention will be on Banxico’s latest inflation report which will be published on Wednesday, followed by April unemployment data on Thursday. For global markets and fed pricing, all eyes will be on the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, the PCE deflator.
  • The market maintains roughly a 60% probability of a 25bps Banxico cut in June and an accumulated adjustment of around -79bps for the year vs -73bps in the prior week. JPMorgan believe that encouraging news on growth and positive news on core inflation in 1H May will be important. JPM think one print is not nearly enough to talk about a change of trend, but the Banxico committee will likely be encouraged by it.