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Banxico Minutes Due Tomorrow

MEXICO
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  • Banxico will publish the minutes to its May MPC meeting tomorrow, when it unanimously agreed to hold rates, but significantly revised up this year’s inflation forecasts and delayed the convergence of inflation to target to end-2025.
    • The full MNI review with analyst views is here.
  • JP Morgan think core inflation concerns will be widespread across the board, but with some dovish tilts by a couple of members. They expect the Fed to be depicted as relevant, but more so later in the cycle as the relative monetary stance becomes easier in Mexico, not this early in the easing cycle. Finally, they don’t expect a lot of incremental news on fiscal, which should remain a source of concern.
  • Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs believe the minutes will show directors expecting disinflation dynamics to continue, but with the impact of the recent shocks now expected to take longer to dissipate. They will be looking for any discussion around the conditions that would validate a cut at the next meeting, and how many of the five directors would be open to that. They will also be watching for discussion about the implications for the near-term calibration of monetary policy of a tight labour market and positive output and labour market gaps.
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  • Banxico will publish the minutes to its May MPC meeting tomorrow, when it unanimously agreed to hold rates, but significantly revised up this year’s inflation forecasts and delayed the convergence of inflation to target to end-2025.
    • The full MNI review with analyst views is here.
  • JP Morgan think core inflation concerns will be widespread across the board, but with some dovish tilts by a couple of members. They expect the Fed to be depicted as relevant, but more so later in the cycle as the relative monetary stance becomes easier in Mexico, not this early in the easing cycle. Finally, they don’t expect a lot of incremental news on fiscal, which should remain a source of concern.
  • Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs believe the minutes will show directors expecting disinflation dynamics to continue, but with the impact of the recent shocks now expected to take longer to dissipate. They will be looking for any discussion around the conditions that would validate a cut at the next meeting, and how many of the five directors would be open to that. They will also be watching for discussion about the implications for the near-term calibration of monetary policy of a tight labour market and positive output and labour market gaps.