MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, October 14

MNI BRIEF: China Sep M2 Rises To Four-Month High

MNI BRIEF: China Foreign Trade Grow Steady; Exports +4.3% YTD

MNI BRIEF: China Foreign Trade Facing Pressure In Q4

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY16.0 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY16.3 TRLN: PBOC

CHINA SEP EXPORTS +2.4% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +6.0% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.2% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI BRIEF: China Sep CPI Slows To 0.4% Y/Y On Base Effects

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.20B BSL

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

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Banxico Minutes Due Tomorrow

MEXICO
  • Banxico will publish the minutes to its May MPC meeting tomorrow, when it unanimously agreed to hold rates, but significantly revised up this year’s inflation forecasts and delayed the convergence of inflation to target to end-2025.
    • The full MNI review with analyst views is here.
  • JP Morgan think core inflation concerns will be widespread across the board, but with some dovish tilts by a couple of members. They expect the Fed to be depicted as relevant, but more so later in the cycle as the relative monetary stance becomes easier in Mexico, not this early in the easing cycle. Finally, they don’t expect a lot of incremental news on fiscal, which should remain a source of concern.
  • Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs believe the minutes will show directors expecting disinflation dynamics to continue, but with the impact of the recent shocks now expected to take longer to dissipate. They will be looking for any discussion around the conditions that would validate a cut at the next meeting, and how many of the five directors would be open to that. They will also be watching for discussion about the implications for the near-term calibration of monetary policy of a tight labour market and positive output and labour market gaps.
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