MNI BRIEF: Inflation Risks Now Shifted To Downside-BOE Ramsden

MNI: Goolsbee Says Stalled Inflation Means Wait Before Moving

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, April 19

MNI BRIEF: China Hog Market More Balanced In Q2 - Ministry

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Fri; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 619; OIL RIGS 511; GAS RIGS 106

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU, UK Synd W/C 22 Apr, BoE APF Mon

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Banxico Minutes Seen As More Hawkish Among Analysts

MEXICO
  • **Banorte: In their view, the document shows an even more hawkish bias than the statement. They see greater concerns about the inflation outlook given new shocks and risks.
    • Given the tone of the minutes and recent interviews, their assessment of each members’ views and the balance of the Board, our inflation and Fed path forecasts, Banorte see an even more front-loaded hiking cycle.
    • Specifically, they now expect a 75bps rate hike on June 23 (previous: +50bps). Moreover, they see the year-end rate at 9.50% (previous:9.00%), instead of reaching this terminal rate by early 2023.
  • **Goldman Sachs: In their assessment, the minutes are more hawkish than the statement and suggest, given the hawkish balance of views within the MPC, a relatively low bar for the MPC to accelerate the pace of tightening from 50bp to 75bp.
    • If the inflation releases ahead of the June 23 MPC meeting do not show clear signs that inflation has peaked the probability of a 75bp hike is higher than even.
  • **JPMorgan: JPM now expect Banxico to hike 75bp in June to 7.75%. In their view, Banxico’s strong commitment with inflation expectations and its long-term target warrant a shift in the policy stance next month.
    • With inflation expected to surpass 9%saar levels by the end of 2Q—by their estimates and Banxico’s—it should not be surprising that the bank turned up its hawkishness by one notch.
    • Of note, JPM see only one 75bp hike, followed by 50bp in August and September, and 25bp hikes in 4Q, reaching 9.25% by December. They are maintaining our call for rate cuts starting in August 2023.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.