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Banxico Review, Awaiting Further Information

MEXICO
  • Banxico’s governing board decided to keep the overnight rate unchanged at 11.25%, in a unanimous decision. The outcome was in line with prior guidance from the committee and consensus expectations.
  • Furthermore, the statement maintained the current guidance that “in order to achieve an orderly and sustained convergence of headline inflation to the 3% target, it considers that it will be necessary to maintain the reference rate at its current level for an extended period."
  • There were minor upward adjustments to the core inflation targets for the fourth quarter of 2023, and the first half of 2024 which could well have been expected following the cautious commentary from Deputy Governor Heath in the lead up to the decision. Headline CPI forecasts for Q3 2023 were revised down to 4.7 from 5.0 and remained unchanged for longer timeframes.
  • As expected, there was little movement for Mexican assets following the announcement, with USDMXN consolidating the solid decline it made before the decision, back below the 17.00 handle.
  • It appears that the committee remain in data dependent mode, and any signals for potential policy easing will be eagerly awaited at future meetings.
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