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Barclays: 125bp In Hikes From Jul To Early 2023

ECB

Barclays has revised their ECB call, now seeing 125bp in hikes from July to Q1 23:

  • "We now expect the ECB to hike in increments of 25bp at each meeting from July to December 2022, and once more in Q1 2023, bringing the deposit rate to 0.75%. We expect a pause thereafter on the basis that in Q1 2023 inflation should be on a downward trend, with clear evidence that the euro area is in a slowdown phase."
  • Previously they'd seen 25bp hikes in Jul and Sep, then pausing, with 2 more hikes in Sep 2023 and Dec 2023.
  • For this week's meeting they see the ECB announcing that APP purchases will end at end-June, "with a possible extension of EUR5bn in the first week of July." They also expect the ECB to signal it will raise rates starting in July.
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