MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, March 13

MNI BRIEF: China Has Been In Communication With U.S. On Trade

MNI BRIEF: China To Enhance Customs Clearance

MNI BRIEF: China Consumer Satisfaction Up

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY68.6 Bln via OMO Thursday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1728 Thurs; -0.64% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE JAN IP +0.8% M/M, +0% Y/Y

MNI: SWEDEN FINAL FEB CPIF +2.9% Y/Y

MNI: US FEB TREASURY BUDGET -$307.0B

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Barclays Add A Second Fed Cut For 2025 On Softer Growth

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsNorth America
  • Barclays now expect 2x25bp cuts from the FOMC this year (Jun & Sep) vs just once in June previously, and see it cutting three times in 2026 (Mar, Jun & Sep).
  • “President Trump has shown more appetite to impose widespread tariffs than we had previously anticipated. We thus raise our baseline assumption of the trade-weighted tariff rate from about 10% to 15%.”
  • They have lowered their GDP forecast -0.8pps to 0.7% Q4/Q4 in 2025 and raised their u/e rate forecast +0.4pps to 4.2% in 4Q25.
  • They see core PCE inflation ending this year at 3.2% Q4/Q4 (+0.4pp) before moderating to 2.2% Q4/Q4 in 2026 “as the effects of tariffs dissipate”. 
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  • Barclays now expect 2x25bp cuts from the FOMC this year (Jun & Sep) vs just once in June previously, and see it cutting three times in 2026 (Mar, Jun & Sep).
  • “President Trump has shown more appetite to impose widespread tariffs than we had previously anticipated. We thus raise our baseline assumption of the trade-weighted tariff rate from about 10% to 15%.”
  • They have lowered their GDP forecast -0.8pps to 0.7% Q4/Q4 in 2025 and raised their u/e rate forecast +0.4pps to 4.2% in 4Q25.
  • They see core PCE inflation ending this year at 3.2% Q4/Q4 (+0.4pp) before moderating to 2.2% Q4/Q4 in 2026 “as the effects of tariffs dissipate”.