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FINANCIALS: Barclays (BACR) Q4 Results

FINANCIALS

Solid results from Barclays alongside firm guidance. Issuance should be limited in 2025, but should see a decent amount of AT1 refinancing. LLR tick up mostly driven by Tesco bank and not expected to reoccur.

  • Barclays UK income £2,615. up 46% on Q4 23 , of which around 30% was the gain on Tesco Bank. The IB provides £2,607m in income, up 28% vs Q4 23.
  • OpEx Down 1% year on year.
  • CET1 declines 0.2% during the quarter. +20bps of capital generation more than offset by dividends (-8bps) RWA increases (-15bps) and the Tesco Bank Acquisition (-21bps)
  • FY LLR 46bps, target 50-60bps through cycle. Q4 LLR jumps to 66bps - highly driven by Tesco Bank. Ex Tesco Bank the LLR only increases 10bps to 47bps, which seems more reasonable.
  • Structural hedge income to peak in 2025, falling away slowly in 2026 and more rapidly thereafter.

Issuance

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Solid results from Barclays alongside firm guidance. Issuance should be limited in 2025, but should see a decent amount of AT1 refinancing. LLR tick up mostly driven by Tesco bank and not expected to reoccur.

  • Barclays UK income £2,615. up 46% on Q4 23 , of which around 30% was the gain on Tesco Bank. The IB provides £2,607m in income, up 28% vs Q4 23.
  • OpEx Down 1% year on year.
  • CET1 declines 0.2% during the quarter. +20bps of capital generation more than offset by dividends (-8bps) RWA increases (-15bps) and the Tesco Bank Acquisition (-21bps)
  • FY LLR 46bps, target 50-60bps through cycle. Q4 LLR jumps to 66bps - highly driven by Tesco Bank. Ex Tesco Bank the LLR only increases 10bps to 47bps, which seems more reasonable.
  • Structural hedge income to peak in 2025, falling away slowly in 2026 and more rapidly thereafter.

Issuance

Keep reading...Show less