February 13, 2025 07:45 GMT
FINANCIALS: Barclays (BACR) Q4 Results
FINANCIALS
Solid results from Barclays alongside firm guidance. Issuance should be limited in 2025, but should see a decent amount of AT1 refinancing. LLR tick up mostly driven by Tesco bank and not expected to reoccur.
- Barclays UK income £2,615. up 46% on Q4 23 , of which around 30% was the gain on Tesco Bank. The IB provides £2,607m in income, up 28% vs Q4 23.
- OpEx Down 1% year on year.
- CET1 declines 0.2% during the quarter. +20bps of capital generation more than offset by dividends (-8bps) RWA increases (-15bps) and the Tesco Bank Acquisition (-21bps)
- FY LLR 46bps, target 50-60bps through cycle. Q4 LLR jumps to 66bps - highly driven by Tesco Bank. Ex Tesco Bank the LLR only increases 10bps to 47bps, which seems more reasonable.
- Structural hedge income to peak in 2025, falling away slowly in 2026 and more rapidly thereafter.
Issuance
- £3.1bn of AT1's maturing in 2025 could see Barclays coming to market soon with an AT1. All BACR's 2025 AT1 calls have very high float spreads and we would fully expect calls if markets remain at current levels as we covered in our 2025 AT1 calls preview - https://mni.marketnews.com/4gxCLaR
- Only £3bn of total T2 calls/maturities spread through 2025 & 2026
Targets/Guidance
- Management targets an upgrade at Moody's or S&P in time, in order to achieve and A- composite rating, currently rated Baa1 & BBB+ respectively.
- NII guided to increase to in 2025. RoTE Targets would imply c.170bps/c.200bps of capital generation in 2025/2026 - with a reasonably low payout ratio - although the balance of the £10bn payout will be through share buy backs.
Headlines
- "*BARCLAYS PLANS TO RETURN AT LEAST £10B TO HOLDERS '24 TO '26
- *BARCLAYS SEES 2025 CET1 RATIO 13% TO 14%, EST. 13.9%
- *BARCLAYS SEES 2025 ROTE ABOUT +11%, EST. +10.7%
- *Barclays End-4Q CET1 Ratio 13.6%
- *BARCLAYS 4Q PRETAX PROFIT GBP1.66B, EST. GBP1.62B
- *BARCLAYS 4Q INVESTMENT BANK REV. GBP2.61B, EST. GBP2.47B
- *BARCLAYS 4Q NET INTEREST INCOME GBP3.50B, EST. GBP3.29B" - bbg
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