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Barclays economist Michael Gapen....>

US DATA PREVIEW
US DATA PREVIEW: Barclays economist Michael Gapen expected US August employment
report out Friday, Sept. 1st, to show "another month of solid growth in
employment." He expects "nonfarm payrolls to rise by 200k and for private sector
payrolls to rise by 190k. Factors that underlie our forecast are initial and
continuing claims, which point to subdued rates of separation in the labor
market, and the rebound in the employment diffusion index over the past two
months, which indicates employment growth has been more broad-based across
industries."
- He adds "the labor force participation rate has moved higher by two-tenths in
recent months to 62.9% and has yet to move above 63.0% since March 2014. As a
result, we look for solid employment and lack of further near-term upward
momentum in participation to lead to a one-tenth decline in the unemployment
rate to 4.2%. Elsewhere in the report, we look for average hourly earnings to
rise by 0.3% m/m (2.7% y/y) and for average weekly hours to remain unchanged at
34.5."

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