MNI BRIEF: China Hog Market More Balanced In Q2 - Ministry

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Fri; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1046 Fri; -5.03% Y/Y

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1046 FRI VS 7.1020

MNI BRIEF: Beijing Opposes U.S. Measures Against Chinese Steel

MNI: GERMANY FEB PRODUCER PRICES -2.9% Y/Y

MNI: UK MAR RETAIL SALES +0% M/M, +0.8% Y/Y

Retail sales due at 7:00BST

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Barclays Expect Banxico To Mirror The Fed One Last Time

MEXICO
  • Barclays continue to expect Banxico to mirror the Fed one last time. Barclays then expect Banxico effectively to decouple from the Fed and keep the rate unchanged for some time to “allow monetary tightening to act on inflation.” In fact, we believe this could be the board’s “catch phrase” to provide forward guidance to market participants.
  • Shifting gears to the next cycle, Barclays believe Banxico will be unable to cut rates until November; while Barclays expect inflation to trend downwards, they think it will be a very gradual process. Current expectations are for 12-month headline inflation to end this year at 5.7% (consensus: 5.1%) and core at 5.3% (5.1%).
  • However, ex-ante real rates will likely be so high by then, with inflation expectations for YE 24 at about 3.5%, that Banxico might be able to cut rates (25bp in November and December), almost regardless of whether the Fed cuts this year, in order to adjust its monetary policy stance to a more “neutral” territory.
  • Barclays still expect Banxico to continue to ease monetary policy in 2024, gradually taking the reference rate towards 7.50%.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.