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Barclays on Tomorrow’s Banxico Quarterly Inflation Report

MEXICO
  • Barclays believe the central bank’s Quarterly Report will be an important piece of the puzzle to have a more complete view on what the Banxico board is envisioning with respect to the interest rate path ahead.
  • While the minutes provided a rationale behind the February surprise hike, the possibility of another upward revision to Banxico’s inflation projections, particularly in Q4 23, and the analytical annexes (or ‘gray boxes’) in the Quarterly Report could be key to assess the board’s current reaction function.
  • This will not only be the very first time that the newly appointed Deputy Governor Mejía is in an official press conference, but also the first time that all five members of the board will be available for a Q&A session after the surprise hike.
  • Overall, the past meeting minutes and the CPI print for the first half of February signal, in Barclays view, that they should expect at least two 25bp rate hikes (March and May), before reaching a ‘terminal rate’ level, and leave it unchanged for the rest of 2023.
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