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Barclays: Rent/OER Prices To Pick Up In Future

US DATA
Barclays estimates a 0.41% M/M headline CPI increase in May, with core up 0.46% M/M (both figures broadly in line with consensus). They see April's "sharp increases" in used cars / hotel prices not repeated "to the same extent".
  • Core goods inflation is set to slow to 1.0% M/M (from 2.0%), with rents and owner-equivalent rent (OER) rising 0.18% and 0.20%, respectively, which represents a lag behind the pick-up in overall core services CPI for now.
  • Looking ahead though, they see headline and core CPI pushing to historical highs amid rising re-opening activity, as well as rent / OER continuing to rise from recently subdued levels as households' ability to pay rent improves.
  • They forecast core at 3.3% Y/Y by end-2021 and 2.2% by end-2022 (with the pace of inflation beyond this summer consistent with 2.0-2.2% annualized rate).


Source: Barclays


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