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Barclays See Month-End Rebalancing Flows Erring Toward Broad USD Selling

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  • Barclays write that their model indicates broad-based, strong dollar-selling by month-end. They cite the reaction to slightly softer US data in May, with bonds rallying and stocks reaching new highs. They see this as likely to trigger more "re-balancing" needs to sell dollars.
  • Their model sees this dollar-selling signal consistent across G10. Meanwhile, their sentiment index indicates that bullish USD sentiment could be peaking, which could amplify the USD selling move amid limited data flow into next week.
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  • Barclays write that their model indicates broad-based, strong dollar-selling by month-end. They cite the reaction to slightly softer US data in May, with bonds rallying and stocks reaching new highs. They see this as likely to trigger more "re-balancing" needs to sell dollars.
  • Their model sees this dollar-selling signal consistent across G10. Meanwhile, their sentiment index indicates that bullish USD sentiment could be peaking, which could amplify the USD selling move amid limited data flow into next week.