MNI: Canada March Retails Flat After Feb Decline Led By Gas

STATSCAN SAYS FLASH RETAIL SALES WERE UNCHANGED IN MARCH

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, April 24

MNI BRIEF: China Steel Demand Q2 Limited Rebound

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Weds; Liquidity Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1048 Weds; -4.92% Y/Y

US Treasury Auction Calendar

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Italy, EU Auctions, BoE APF Monday

US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -6.37M TO 453.6M APR 19 WK

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Barclays Sees A Further 100bps Hike Before Year-End

CHILE
  • Following Wednesday's rate decision, Barclays now expect the policy rate at 3.75% in the next meeting, with upside risks. They add that while the BCCh will likely remain data dependent, the political context could prompt the bank to hike faster. Barclays also bring forward their expectations for the policy rate to reach 4.75% to May 2022, from July 2022 previously.
  • They add that they see risks significantly tilted to the upside and expect the BCCh to remain strongly data dependent, with a much more hawkish stance in scenarios in which the pensions withdrawals legislation is approved in Congress, inflation expectations continue to de-anchor and/or there is further pressure on CLP because of political risks.
  • In their view, the political context could prompt the BCCh to accelerate the normalization pace. Approval of the pensions withdrawals legislation and the left-wing candidate Boric winning the presidential election in November appear as relatively likely scenarios.
  • Barclays expect the very front-end of the curve to steepen as the market prices further BCCh front-loading, while the curve should bear flatten against the belly and long-end. They expect the currency to strengthen in coming days given the policy rate surprise, which should allow CLP to correct some of its recent underperformance. However, the USDCLP retracement could be temporary and idiosyncratic factors are likely to continue to weigh on the CLP in the medium-term. They retain their long a USDCLP 1x1.5 call spread recommendation ahead of the November-December elections.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.