Barkin: Soft-Landing Really Challenging

• Richmond Fed's Barkin ('24 voter) appears to see increased difficulty at managing a soft-landing in the economy when updating remarks from a Jun 21 speech called the Recession Question.

*BARKIN: THERE’S A PATH TO COOL INFLATION BUT RECESSION POSSIBLE - bbg

*BARKIN CALLS EFFORTS TO SOFT-LAND ECONOMY `REALLY CHALLENGING’ - bbg

Past comments from the Jun 21 speech:

• “Barring an unanticipated event, I see rising rates stabilizing any drift in inflation expectations and in so doing, increasing real interest rates and quieting demand. Companies will slow down their hiring. […] This moderation of demand could happen without crossing the line into the technical definition of a recession.”
• “The Fed is on a path to return inflation back to normal levels. […] There is of course recession risk along the way, but there’s also the prospect of the economy returning closer to normal.”