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BAX Dec’24 Implied Yield On Track For Second Highest Close Of Contract History

CANADA
  • Another day another steepening in the BAX curve, with the front Jun’23 -0.025, Dec’23 -0.04, Jun’24 -0.12 and Dec’24 -0.12.
  • It sees the BAM3/Z3 spread increase further to +0.115 from -0.055 at last Friday’s close, which would be the highest close since very early Mar 2022.
  • Further out, after little change earlier in the week, the BAZ3/Z4 spread has also narrowed from -1.14 to -1.06 today, unwinding some 12.5bps of cuts priced for 2024 over the week.
  • The latter comes with the Dec’24 implied yield of 4.20% currently set for its highest close since Oct 20, 2022 and otherwise the highest the contract has seen.
  • With OIS now pricing one more hike from the BoC in Sep and possibly July, next week’s highlights include CAD GDP for Q1 plus the monthly advance for April on Wed plus various important US data release including payrolls on Fri.

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