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BAX Inversion Grows

CANADA
  • Front-dated BAX contracts are little changed today through 2022, with an implied yield peaking at 3.855% in the Dec’22.
  • Yields have softened further out though, dipping some 6-7bps in late 2023/1H24, which sees the largest inversion through BAZ2-BAZ3 to date with 17bps of cuts priced.
  • That pales in comparison to the -46bps in the Eurodollars equivalent (with the difference also evidenced in GoC/Tsy curves) but leaves sensitivity to tomorrow’s Canadian GDP for April and less so the CFIB business barometer for signs of growth cooling.

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