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BAX Rate Path Moderation Ramps Up

CANADA
  • BAX implied yields are largely consolidating the earlier move lower on weak US data, led by Mar’23 yields down 14bps from Friday’s close.
  • With even larger moves over the past week (late 2023 yields down more than 30bps), the peak in yields is back near where it was after the Apr 13 BoC decision when the Bank revised its neutral estimate up 25bps to 2-3%.
  • It leaves a crudely implied terminal overnight rate of between 2.75-3% although the curve continues to remain more front-loaded with OIS still pricing 2x50bp in a similar near-term path to the Fed, bolstered by the subsequent surges in Canadian CPI inflation.


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